# Coffee, cocoa, rice, wheat: which crops are most vulnerable to El Niño?

> Bolivia has declared a state of emergency after drought affected about 78,000 families in six of its nine departments and killed more than 75,000 head of livestock. The World Bank expects food prices to rise about 18% next year as El Niño threatens rice and coffee harvests in South America, India and Nepal.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T12:13:44.807Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/77622-coffee-cocoa-rice-wheat-which-crops-are-most-vulnerable-to-el-nino
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Drought and flooding linked to El Niño raise the risk of lower grain and feed output in South America and South Asia, which supports feed ingredient prices and tightens rice supply.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2026-05-29 | [Sugar cane, rice, coffee and cocoa to feel effects of El Niño \| Baking Business](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19190-sugar-cane-rice-coffee-and-cocoa-to-feel-effects-of-el-nino-baking-business.md) | -4.1% | +1.3% |
| RICE | 2023-04-17 | [DA assures stable rice supply amid El Niño threat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36490-da-assures-stable-rice-supply-amid-el-nino-threat.md) | -2.7% | +5.1% |
| RICE | 2026-10-27 | [From maize to coffee, El Nino likely to affect various crops across the world - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17051-from-maize-to-coffee-el-nino-likely-to-affect-various-crops-across-the-world.md) | +3.5% | — |
| RICE | 2023-08-30 | [From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34470-from-rice-to-palm-oil-asian-crops-output-forecast-lower-as-el-nino-strengthens.md) | +1.2% | -2.2% |
| RICE | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | -3.3% | -0.3% |
| WHEAT | 2025-01-29 | [Possible frost damage to crops in the United States supported wheat prices, which are gradually declining](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26543-possible-frost-damage-to-crops-in-the-united-states-supported-wheat-prices.md) | +0.6% | +1.4% |
| WHEAT | 2023-02-23 | [El Niño expected to bring “normal” wheat crop in Australia - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37301-el-nino-expected-to-bring-normal-wheat-crop-in-australia-fastmarkets.md) | -3.0% | -8.7% |
| WHEAT | 2017-12-16 | [Drought leaves U.S. Plains wheat vulnerable to freeze damage](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10328-drought-leaves-u-s-plains-wheat-vulnerable-to-freeze-damage.md) | +0.3% | +0.8% |

## Sources

- lanacion.com.py: https://www.lanacion.com.py/mundo/2026/11/03/cafe-cacao-arroz-trigo-cuales-son-los-cultivos-mas-vulnerables-ante-el-nino/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.