# El Niño Holds at ONI +2.2 as Normal Rainfall Masks a Delayed Yield Risk

> The Oceanic Niño Index remains at +2.2, a strong El Niño reading, while rainfall across the Malaysian and Indonesian palm belts is broadly normal. The analysis expects lagged bunch-weight losses over the following six to twelve months.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T12:13:44.740Z
- Category: weather · region Malaysia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/77621-el-nino-holds-at-oni-2-2-as-normal-rainfall-masks-a-delayed-yield-risk
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

Near-term palm output is supported by normal weather, but the expected lagged yield loss points to tighter palm oil supply later, which is supportive of prices and of substitute oils and meals.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-13 | [IMD Forecasts Below Normal South West Monsoon Rainfall in 2026, El Niño to Impact India’s Kharif Season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19635-imd-forecasts-below-normal-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-in-2026-el-nino-to.md) | -1.0% | -0.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-08 | [Indonesia expects delayed rainy season due to El Nino](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34002-indonesia-expects-delayed-rainy-season-due-to-el-nino.md) | -1.5% | -7.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-06-16 | [FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35405-factbox-mapping-el-nino-s-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24.md) | +1.8% | +14.5% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-28 | [Risks to global food commodity prices from El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33997-risks-to-global-food-commodity-prices-from-el-nino.md) | -2.3% | -3.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-07-07 | [Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34966-malaysia-forecasts-peak-of-el-nino-to-hit-in-early-2024.md) | -0.1% | +0.4% |
| SBO | 2026-04-24 | [Below-Normal Monsoon May Hit Farm Output, Demand and Inflation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19700-below-normal-monsoon-may-hit-farm-output-demand-and-inflation.md) | +3.9% | +0.6% |
| SBO | 2023-11-23 | [El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33277-el-nino-poses-risk-to-2024-palm-oil-output-in-indonesia-malaysia-the.md) | -1.1% | -5.2% |
| SBO | 2017-12-06 | [La Nina heavy rainfall to lift palm oil prices \| Borneo Post Online](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67566-la-nina-heavy-rainfall-to-lift-palm-oil-prices-borneo-post-online.md) | -0.1% | +1.0% |

## Sources

- analytics.palmoileconomics.com: https://analytics.palmoileconomics.com/news/2026-11-03-el-ni-o-holds-at-oni-2-2-as-normal-rainfall-mask
- palmoileconomics.com: https://palmoileconomics.com/news/2026-11-03-el-ni-o-holds-at-oni-2-2-as-normal-rainfall-mask

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.