# Brazil's El Niño Threat Could Tighten Global Soybean Supply, Pressuring Feed Costs

> A Serasa Experian study released October 27 warns a strong El Niño could cut Brazil's 2026/27 soybean harvest by 9.7%, from about 181 million to 164 million tonnes. Mato Grosso and Goiás account for nearly 80% of the estimated financial exposure, put at R$33 billion.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T12:12:17.610Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/77607-brazil-s-el-nino-threat-could-tighten-global-soybean-supply-pressuring-feed
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A potential loss of roughly 17.6 million tonnes would tighten global soybean and meal supply, lifting soybean meal and feed costs, though the outcome depends on how the El Niño evolves.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2021-04-21 | [US soybean futures riding high on weather concerns, tight Brazilian supplies \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11176-us-soybean-futures-riding-high-on-weather-concerns-tight-brazilian-supplies-s.md) | +5.3% | +6.9% |
| SOY | 2023-04-20 | [El Niño could bring severe weather, impacting U.S. grain \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36315-el-nino-could-bring-severe-weather-impacting-u-s-grain-feed-and-grain.md) | -4.7% | -11.3% |
| SOY | 2026-08-10 | [El Niño's Growing Threat: A Slower Harvest at Home, A Bigger Problem in Brazil - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17833-el-nino-s-growing-threat-a-slower-harvest-at-home-a-bigger-problem-in-brazil.md) | +1.5% | +11.9% |
| SOY | 2023-01-04 | [Commodities 2023: Soybean derivatives supply under pressure as Argentina, Brazil face headwinds](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8622-commodities-2023-soybean-derivatives-supply-under-pressure-as-argentina-brazil.md) | +1.5% | +2.2% |
| SOY | 2020-08-24 | [La Nina could impact soybean planting in Brazil, Argentina - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51519-la-nina-could-impact-soybean-planting-in-brazil-argentina-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +5.5% | +13.5% |
| SBM | 2026-08-27 | [European corn, soybean meal prices near historic highs amid supply concerns \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17959-european-corn-soybean-meal-prices-near-historic-highs-amid-supply-concerns-s.md) | +3.0% | +10.1% |
| SBM | 2023-01-04 | [Commodities 2023: Soybean derivatives supply under pressure as Argentina, Brazil face headwinds](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8622-commodities-2023-soybean-derivatives-supply-under-pressure-as-argentina-brazil.md) | +4.1% | +1.0% |
| SBM | 2020-08-24 | [La Nina could impact soybean planting in Brazil, Argentina - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51519-la-nina-could-impact-soybean-planting-in-brazil-argentina-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +3.9% | +14.9% |

## Sources

- brznews.com: https://brznews.com/article/agro-why-your-grocery-bill-is-exposed-to-brazil-s-looming-climate-threat

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.