# El Niño could cut soybean yields in 13 Brazilian states

> A Cerasa Experience study says a very strong El Niño could cut soybean productivity in at least 13 Brazilian states, led by Mato Grosso and Goiás, with output falling to about 163 million tonnes from 180 million under neutral conditions. Rio Grande do Sul could gain, and planted area is expected to rise 2%.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-03T12:12:17.539Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/77606-el-nino-could-cut-soybean-yields-in-13-brazilian-states
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A projected 10% drop in Brazilian soybean output would tighten global soybean and meal supply, supporting soybean meal prices and raising feed costs for livestock buyers.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2022-06-01 | [Third Consecutive La Niña? What to Expect from Soybean Yields in the United States, Brazil and Argentina](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41333-third-consecutive-la-nina-what-to-expect-from-soybean-yields-in-the-united.md) | +2.7% | -0.5% |
| SOY | 2021-01-01 | [The Impact of Preseason La Niña Episodes on Corn and Soybean Yields in Brazil and Argentina](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49571-the-impact-of-preseason-la-nina-episodes-on-corn-and-soybean-yields-in-brazil.md) | +4.6% | +3.8% |
| SOY | 2020-08-24 | [La Nina could impact soybean planting in Brazil, Argentina - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51519-la-nina-could-impact-soybean-planting-in-brazil-argentina-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +5.5% | +13.5% |
| SOY | 2021-07-26 | [Drought could take top end off of soybean yields](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46111-drought-could-take-top-end-off-of-soybean-yields.md) | +1.0% | -7.7% |
| SOY | 2023-12-18 | [El Niño Fuels Crop Issues In Brazil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13605-el-nino-fuels-crop-issues-in-brazil.md) | -1.2% | -8.4% |
| SBM | 2022-06-01 | [Third Consecutive La Niña? What to Expect from Soybean Yields in the United States, Brazil and Argentina](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41333-third-consecutive-la-nina-what-to-expect-from-soybean-yields-in-the-united.md) | -0.4% | +7.2% |
| SBM | 2020-08-24 | [La Nina could impact soybean planting in Brazil, Argentina - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51519-la-nina-could-impact-soybean-planting-in-brazil-argentina-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +3.9% | +14.9% |
| SBM | 2024-10-17 | [La Nina’s Return Could Herald Weak Brazilian Corn, Soybean Crops \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13541-la-nina-s-return-could-herald-weak-brazilian-corn-soybean-crops-cz-app.md) | -0.4% | -7.2% |

## Sources

- canalrural.com.br: https://www.canalrural.com.br/videos/el-nino-pode-reduzir-a-produtividade-da-soja-em-13-estados-brasileiros/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.