# Diesel most exposed to Middle East conflict, US futures surge 8% | Reuters

> US ultra-low sulfur diesel futures rose about 8% to their highest since February, outpacing crude and gasoline. Analysts said diesel supply is most exposed to the Middle East conflict because the Middle East is a major distillate export hub and medium heavy-sour crude used for distillates could be disrupted.

- Date: 2025-06-13 · published 2025-06-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Middle East · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7756-diesel-most-exposed-to-middle-east-conflict-us-futures-surge-8-reuters
- Commodities: [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Fears of disruption to Middle East distillate and crude exports raise diesel and crude prices, with diesel feed-cost and freight-related inputs likely to firm.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bullish ▲
- BRENT: bullish ▲
- DIESEL: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DIESEL | 2025-06-16 | 5 | +12.8% | 3.8 | Diesel futures rose about 8% to a multi-month high, outpacing crude because the Middle East is a major distillate export hub, so distillate supply risk is amplified. |
| DIESEL | 2025-06-17 | 5 | +17.2% | 3.9 | Diesel futures outpaced crude and gasoline because the Middle East is a major distillate export hub, explaining diesel's outsized move. |
| BRENT | 2025-06-13 | 1 | +7.3% | 3.3 | US diesel futures rose about 8% on Middle East distillate supply exposure, a concurrent effect of the same shock. |
| BRENT | 2025-06-13 | 5 | +11.2% | 3.1 | Diesel futures rose 8% on exposure of distillate supply to the Middle East conflict, which reflects and reinforces the crude rally. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DIESEL | 2026-03-04 | [US diesel hits $4 per gallon as fuel costs rise amid escalating Middle East conflict \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5530-us-diesel-hits-4-per-gallon-as-fuel-costs-rise-amid-escalating-middle-east.md) | +6.1% | +30.8% |
| DIESEL | 2026-03-10 | [Diesel markets, upended by Middle East conflict, threaten global economic slowdown \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20337-diesel-markets-upended-by-middle-east-conflict-threaten-global-economic.md) | +11.4% | +27.3% |
| DIESEL | 2026-03-15 | [Oil poised for further gains as Middle East conflict threatens export facilities \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6639-oil-poised-for-further-gains-as-middle-east-conflict-threatens-export.md) | +15.6% | -4.9% |
| DIESEL | 2026-03-01 | [Oil jumps, dollar rallies with gold as conflict grips Middle East \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10713-oil-jumps-dollar-rallies-with-gold-as-conflict-grips-middle-east-reuters.md) | +36.4% | +69.9% |
| DIESEL | 2024-10-03 | [Oil jumps over $3 a barrel as Middle East conflict stokes supply worry \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10023-oil-jumps-over-3-a-barrel-as-middle-east-conflict-stokes-supply-worry-reuters.md) | +4.4% | +0.8% |
| WTI | 2026-03-04 | [US diesel hits $4 per gallon as fuel costs rise amid escalating Middle East conflict \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5530-us-diesel-hits-4-per-gallon-as-fuel-costs-rise-amid-escalating-middle-east.md) | +12.2% | +37.4% |
| WTI | 2023-10-09 | [Middle East conflict fuels rise in commodity prices \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9277-middle-east-conflict-fuels-rise-in-commodity-prices-reuters.md) | +5.9% | -2.2% |
| WTI | 2026-03-15 | [Oil poised for further gains as Middle East conflict threatens export facilities \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6639-oil-poised-for-further-gains-as-middle-east-conflict-threatens-export.md) | +0.0% | +1.6% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/diesel-most-exposed-middle-east-conflict-us-futures-surge-8-2025-06-13/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.