# Focus Bulletin: market raises forecasts for Selic, dollar and inflation

> The central bank's weekly Focus survey raised the 2026 inflation forecast from 5.19% to 5.22% and the year-end Selic projection from 13.25% to 13.50%. The dollar forecast for 2026 rose from R$5.05 to R$5.34, while the 2026 GDP growth estimate fell from 1.80% to 1.76%. Forecasts for 2027 to 2029 inflation also moved higher for consecutive weeks.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T12:08:34.942Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/77532-focus-bulletin-market-raises-forecasts-for-selic-dollar-and-inflation
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A dollar forecast near R$5.34 and rising inflation expectations point to continued import cost pressure on feed and fertilizer, and to tighter domestic credit for agricultural buyers.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2024-09-23 | [Dollar rises more than 1% at the start of a week marked by inflation data in Brazil and the US \| Brasil 247](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28517-dollar-rises-more-than-1-at-the-start-of-a-week-marked-by-inflation-data-in.md) | -1.1% | +3.9% |
| USDBRL | 2025-11-19 | [Dollar rises in the Brazilian market following international movement \| Brasil 247](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22163-dollar-rises-in-the-brazilian-market-following-international-movement-brasil-247.md) | +1.3% | +3.8% |
| USDBRL | 2023-09-08 | [Why the US Fed's interest rate pause is a win for dollar bulls \| The National](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34010-why-the-us-fed-s-interest-rate-pause-is-a-win-for-dollar-bulls-the-national.md) | -2.2% | +4.1% |
| USDBRL | 2021-01-22 | [Latam FX falls as dollar rises, Brazil real lags peers for the week - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49387-latam-fx-falls-as-dollar-rises-brazil-real-lags-peers-for-the-week-markets.md) | +0.4% | +0.3% |
| USDBRL | 2024-05-31 | [Dollar surpasses R$ 5,25 as battle over Ptax rate overshadows international markets \| Brasil 247](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30474-dollar-surpasses-r-5-25-as-battle-over-ptax-rate-overshadows-international.md) | +1.0% | +6.8% |

## Sources

- infomoney.com.br: https://www.infomoney.com.br/economia/boletim-focus-projecoes-03112026/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.