# Goldman lifts natural gas price forecasts on supply, weather uncertainty

> Goldman Sachs raised its European TTF gas forecasts, lifting Q1 2027 to €74/MWh from €44 and the 2027 average to €51 from €32. The increase reflects a 45% probability of a low-supply winter for Middle East LNG and a small cold-weather risk. Goldman's forecasts remain below current forwards.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T12:07:40.999Z
- Category: macro · region Europe · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/77519-goldman-lifts-natural-gas-price-forecasts-on-supply-weather-uncertainty
- Commodities: [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

A higher bank forecast signals expectations of tight Middle East LNG supply, supporting energy costs and fertiliser (nitrogen) production economics. Forecasts still sit below forwards, so market pricing already reflects much of this risk.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲
- NATGAS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2025-02-12 | [Winter Weather, LNG Demand Raises Forecast Natural Gas Benchmark Prices — The Offtake](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26218-winter-weather-lng-demand-raises-forecast-natural-gas-benchmark-prices-the.md) | +54.4% | +15.3% |
| NATGAS | 2021-07-23 | [Natural gas price nears three-year high as summer heat strains supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46254-natural-gas-price-nears-three-year-high-as-summer-heat-strains-supply.md) | +0.8% | -4.5% |
| NATGAS | 2020-04-20 | [U.S. natgas rise on forecasts output will fall with oil price collapse](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12197-u-s-natgas-rise-on-forecasts-output-will-fall-with-oil-price-collapse.md) | +2.7% | -4.5% |
| NATGAS | 2020-04-12 | [Higher Natural Gas Prices Are On The Horizon \| OilPrice.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12201-higher-natural-gas-prices-are-on-the-horizon-oilprice-com.md) | -0.3% | +2.6% |
| NATGAS | 2024-11-27 | [Goldman warns of likely Asia LNG price rise on European supply crunch \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27592-goldman-warns-of-likely-asia-lng-price-rise-on-european-supply-crunch-reuters.md) | -12.6% | +0.2% |
| UREA | 2025-02-12 | [Winter Weather, LNG Demand Raises Forecast Natural Gas Benchmark Prices — The Offtake](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26218-winter-weather-lng-demand-raises-forecast-natural-gas-benchmark-prices-the.md) | +0.3% | -4.0% |
| UREA | 2026-10-28 | [European natural gas prices soar: What it means for your winter bills](https://feedsoft.ai/events/625-european-natural-gas-prices-soar-what-it-means-for-your-winter-bills.md) | -1.3% | — |
| UREA | 2021-10-05 | [Gas price surges to a record high in Europe on supply concerns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44766-gas-price-surges-to-a-record-high-in-europe-on-supply-concerns.md) | +6.2% | +11.5% |

## Sources

- investing.com: https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/goldman-lifts-natural-gas-price-forecasts-on-supply-weather-uncertainty-4994177

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.