# Euro remains on defensive vs USD ahead of US midterm elections

> EUR/USD trades just below 1.1200 as the dollar stabilises after stronger US data, including a rise in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 55.5 in October. Markets price over a 70% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, and France's debt concerns weigh on the euro ahead of the US midterm elections.

- Date: 2026-11-03 · published 2026-11-03T03:08:05.910Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/76871-euro-remains-on-defensive-vs-usd-ahead-of-us-midterm-elections
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md)

## Why it matters

Higher US rate expectations and a firmer dollar lower the USD price of dollar-denominated grain and meal exports and can ease US-priced commodity import costs for other markets; the effect on feed prices is modest and mainly indirect.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- EURUSD: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2018-11-05 | [EURUSD retreats on ECB Italy and soft data ahead of US midterm elections](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62241-eurusd-retreats-on-ecb-italy-and-soft-data-ahead-of-us-midterm-elections.md) | +0.7% | +0.3% |
| DXY | 2020-10-28 | [Sterling drops vs dollar; one-week volatility jumps ahead of US elections \| Malay Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50878-sterling-drops-vs-dollar-one-week-volatility-jumps-ahead-of-us-elections-malay.md) | +0.4% | -1.6% |
| DXY | 2024-10-29 | [Dollar peaks against yen ahead of US election and economic data \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28079-dollar-peaks-against-yen-ahead-of-us-election-and-economic-data-reuters.md) | -0.2% | +2.1% |
| DXY | 2018-08-29 | [Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Live: EUR/USD <1.17 Handle Ahead Of Eurozone Inflation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63737-euro-us-dollar-exchange-rate-live-eur-usd-and-lt-1-17-handle-ahead-of-eurozone.md) | +1.2% | +0.3% |
| DXY | 2024-10-28 | [Ahead of US election, ringgit closes lower against US dollar amid cautious sentiment \| Malay Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28137-ahead-of-us-election-ringgit-closes-lower-against-us-dollar-amid-cautious.md) | +0.2% | +1.9% |
| EURUSD | 2018-11-05 | [EURUSD retreats on ECB Italy and soft data ahead of US midterm elections](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62241-eurusd-retreats-on-ecb-italy-and-soft-data-ahead-of-us-midterm-elections.md) | -0.5% | -0.3% |
| EURUSD | 2023-10-31 | [EUR/USD retreats on mixed EU data, ahead of Fed’s decision – Noor Trends](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33846-eur-usd-retreats-on-mixed-eu-data-ahead-of-fed-s-decision-noor-trends.md) | +1.2% | +3.3% |
| EURUSD | 2018-08-29 | [Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Live: EUR/USD <1.17 Handle Ahead Of Eurozone Inflation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63737-euro-us-dollar-exchange-rate-live-eur-usd-and-lt-1-17-handle-ahead-of-eurozone.md) | -0.9% | +0.3% |

## Sources

- fxstreet.com: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-on-defensive-below-11200-as-usd-stabilizes-ahead-of-us-midterm-elections-202611030144

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.