# El Niño Builds Behind Normal Belt Rainfall, Yield Risk Lags

> The ONI index is at +2.2, a strong El Niño, but rainfall across Malaysia and Indonesia is broadly normal. Malaysia's September palm oil output rose 16.5% month on month, and closing stocks climbed 31.9% to 2,163,173 tonnes.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-03T00:45:46.361Z
- Category: weather · region Malaysia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/76784-el-nino-builds-behind-normal-belt-rainfall-yield-risk-lags
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Normal rain keeps near-term palm output building, and rising Malaysian stocks are bearish for palm oil prices. Yield risk from El Niño is expected to appear later, as drought effects lag by months.

## Read by commodity

- PALMOIL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2019-05-27 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2019) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59008-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2019-world-reliefweb.md) | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-05-24 | [Strong El Niño this year appears unlikely](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59007-strong-el-nino-this-year-appears-unlikely.md) | +0.6% | -0.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-10-04 | [Palm oil production to revive following departure of El Niño](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5643-palm-oil-production-to-revive-following-departure-of-el-nino.md) | +0.9% | +2.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2021-06-08 | [Malaysia 2021 palm oil output seen up on better weather, yield - UkrAgroConsult](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46461-malaysia-2021-palm-oil-output-seen-up-on-better-weather-yield-ukragroconsult.md) | -11.7% | -7.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-28 | [Malaysia 2024 palm oil output to rise despite El Nino - govt \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34218-malaysia-2024-palm-oil-output-to-rise-despite-el-nino-govt-reuters.md) | -2.3% | -3.9% |

## Sources

- palmoileconomics.com: https://palmoileconomics.com/news/2026-11-02-el-ni-o-builds-behind-normal-belt-rainfall-yield

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.