# Brazil: Anti-establishment wave prevails | articles | ING THINK

> Brazil's first-round election results diverged sharply from polls, with right-leaning Jair Bolsonaro taking 46% of the vote and leading Fernando Haddad by a wide margin. The result reflected an anti-establishment wave tied to recession and Lava-Jato corruption revelations.

- Date: 2018-10-08 · published 2018-10-08T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7666-brazil-anti-establishment-wave-prevails-articles-ing-think
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Expectations of a market-friendly government support the real and Brazilian assets, which can affect the export competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans, corn and meal and therefore global feed prices.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: neutral
- USDBRL: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2018-10-09 | 5 | -6.8% | -4.1 | The first-round result diverged from polls with Bolsonaro at 46%, a surprise that shifted election expectations and drove the repricing of BRL. |
| USDBRL | 2018-10-09 | 1 | -3.8% | -3.8 | The first-round result diverged from polls with Bolsonaro well ahead, surprising markets and driving the repricing of Brazilian political risk behind the currency move, though this is context rather than the direct market reaction. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2019-01-03 | [Brazil markets soar as new government vows to shrink state](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12357-brazil-markets-soar-as-new-government-vows-to-shrink-state.md) | -3.4% | -4.1% |
| USDBRL | 2025-06-25 | [Brazil’s Central Bank intervention in FX market raises questions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24424-brazil-s-central-bank-intervention-in-fx-market-raises-questions.md) | -0.7% | +0.9% |
| USDBRL | 2024-10-31 | [Brazilian government reaches agreement on spending cuts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28083-brazilian-government-reaches-agreement-on-spending-cuts.md) | -1.3% | +3.8% |
| USDBRL | 2017-11-28 | [Softer Pension Proposal Leads to Brazilian Stock Slip \| Chief Investment Officer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11658-softer-pension-proposal-leads-to-brazilian-stock-slip-chief-investment-officer.md) | +0.8% | +2.9% |
| USDBRL | 2017-07-13 | [Ex-Brazil President Lula sentenced to nearly 10 years for corruption](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70170-ex-brazil-president-lula-sentenced-to-nearly-10-years-for-corruption.md) | -2.3% | -2.4% |
| SBM | 2023-02-22 | [Food companies under pressure to source deforestation-free products under new EU law \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37352-food-companies-under-pressure-to-source-deforestation-free-products-under-new.md) | -2.2% | -7.2% |
| SBM | 2025-08-11 | [eFeedLink - Tax changes in Argentina could boost Brazilian soybean exports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13841-efeedlink-tax-changes-in-argentina-could-boost-brazilian-soybean-exports.md) | +2.9% | +2.4% |
| SBM | 2019-01-03 | [Brazil markets soar as new government vows to shrink state](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12357-brazil-markets-soar-as-new-government-vows-to-shrink-state.md) | +2.6% | -0.3% |

## Sources

- think.ing.com: https://think.ing.com/articles/brazil-anti-establishment-wave-prevails/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.