# Brazil's real, stocks rally on Bolsonaro win

> Brazil's real and stock index rallied after Jair Bolsonaro's strong first-round showing in the presidential election, with state-owned firms leading gains. Markets read his victory as market-friendly, with economist Paulo Guedes advising him.

- Date: 2018-10-08 · published 2018-10-08T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7665-brazil-s-real-stocks-rally-on-bolsonaro-win
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A firmer real lowers the local cost of Brazilian soybean and corn exports, which can weigh on world prices, while policy clarity supports investment in Brazilian agriculture and logistics.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2018-10-09 | 5 | -6.8% | -4.1 | The real and stocks rallied on Bolsonaro's strong first-round result, which markets read as market-friendly, boosting demand for BRL. |
| USDBRL | 2018-10-09 | 1 | -3.8% | -3.8 | The real rallied on Bolsonaro's strong first-round showing, which markets read as market-friendly, so inflows and risk appetite strengthened the currency. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2022-05-03 | [Barclays Sees Sharp Rally in Brazil’s Real on Rate Hikes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41607-barclays-sees-sharp-rally-in-brazil-s-real-on-rate-hikes.md) | +1.9% | -6.0% |
| USDBRL | 2018-10-29 | [Bid on Brazil’s Bolsonaro \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62739-bid-on-brazil-s-bolsonaro-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.7% | +6.1% |
| USDBRL | 2018-12-04 | [Brazil stocks gain; real firms as U.S. dollar weakens](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61764-brazil-stocks-gain-real-firms-as-u-s-dollar-weakens.md) | +2.1% | -3.1% |
| USDBRL | 2022-03-24 | [Brazil’s Real and Stocks Are World’s Best as Foreigners Pile In](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12658-brazil-s-real-and-stocks-are-world-s-best-as-foreigners-pile-in.md) | -1.6% | -4.8% |
| USDBRL | 2018-11-16 | [Brazil gains on Bolsonaro's choice to head central bank, Mexican peso falls](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62252-brazil-gains-on-bolsonaro-s-choice-to-head-central-bank-mexican-peso-falls.md) | +1.0% | +2.9% |
| SOY | 2019-03-28 | [Bolsonaro struggles to sell Brazil pension bill as markets tumble](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60305-bolsonaro-struggles-to-sell-brazil-pension-bill-as-markets-tumble.md) | +1.3% | -3.2% |
| SOY | 2017-05-18 | [Plunge in Brazil’s Real Shows Risk of Chasing Big Returns](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71196-plunge-in-brazil-s-real-shows-risk-of-chasing-big-returns.md) | -2.8% | -4.2% |
| SOY | 2023-01-20 | [Brazil's real set for 2% weekly loss on worries over c.bank independence \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37979-brazil-s-real-set-for-2-weekly-loss-on-worries-over-c-bank-independence.md) | +0.6% | +0.8% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets-latam/emerging-markets-brazils-real-stocks-rally-on-bolsonaro-win-idUSL4N1WO34L/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.