# Citi Remains Optimistic on Latin American Carry Trade but Urges Caution

> Citigroup's US FX desk says the carry trade will keep offering opportunities in Latin America thanks to high emerging-market interest rates, though returns are unlikely to match recent years. Citi is positive on the Colombian peso, Brazilian real and Argentine peso against the dollar, and expects the dollar to weaken slightly after the Federal Reserve held rates last week.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T21:27:55.625Z
- Category: macro · region Latin America · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/76217-citi-remains-optimistic-on-latin-american-carry-trade-but-urges-caution
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Colombian Peso (COP per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDCOP.md), [Argentine Peso (ARS per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDARS.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

A stable carry trade supports demand for Latin American currencies, which tends to ease import costs for feed buyers in Brazil, Colombia and Argentina. A weaker dollar would also lift USD-priced commodities from the region, but the gains are expected to be modest.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼
- USDARS: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: bearish ▼
- USDCOP: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2025-09-15 | [Latam FX Talking: Carry trade remains the dominant theme \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23090-latam-fx-talking-carry-trade-remains-the-dominant-theme-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.5% | +2.4% |
| USDBRL | 2025-12-11 | [Latin American assets rally on Fed cut, Brazil's cenbank maintains pause \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21716-latin-american-assets-rally-on-fed-cut-brazil-s-cenbank-maintains-pause-reuters.md) | +0.9% | -2.2% |
| USDBRL | 2026-04-25 | [Goldman Cuts USD/BRL Outlook as Real Gains on Trade, Carry and Risk Appetite](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19931-goldman-cuts-usd-brl-outlook-as-real-gains-on-trade-carry-and-risk-appetite.md) | -0.9% | +0.5% |
| USDBRL | 2024-07-29 | [Latin American Currencies Tumble Ahead Of Key Central Bank Decisions - Finimize](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29525-latin-american-currencies-tumble-ahead-of-key-central-bank-decisions-finimize.md) | +1.4% | -2.6% |
| USDBRL | 2023-09-18 | [Most Latin American currencies up ahead of central bank policy decisions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34396-most-latin-american-currencies-up-ahead-of-central-bank-policy-decisions.md) | +0.9% | +3.9% |
| DXY | 2025-12-11 | [Latin American assets rally on Fed cut, Brazil's cenbank maintains pause \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21716-latin-american-assets-rally-on-fed-cut-brazil-s-cenbank-maintains-pause-reuters.md) | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| DXY | 2023-03-31 | [Dollar up vs. euro but remains on track for weekly loss after inflation data](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37072-dollar-up-vs-euro-but-remains-on-track-for-weekly-loss-after-inflation-data.md) | -0.1% | +0.0% |
| DXY | 2022-12-13 | [Wall St cautiously optimistic as easing inflation lifts hopes of smaller rate hike](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38419-wall-st-cautiously-optimistic-as-easing-inflation-lifts-hopes-of-smaller-rate.md) | -0.2% | -2.1% |

## Sources

- bloomberglinea.com: https://www.bloomberglinea.com/mercados/citi-mantiene-el-optimismo-sobre-el-carry-trade-en-america-latina-pero-pide-cautela/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.