# Sow Herd Reduction Diverges From Spot Prices: Hog Cycle Lags and 2027 Outlook

> Breeding sow numbers keep falling while hog supply stays high, and farm full costs of about 11.5 yuan/kg for large operations and 12-13 yuan/kg for smaller ones leave producers losing money. Analysts expect prices to bottom out through early 2027, with a cycle reversal only possible in the second half of 2027.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T21:21:54.783Z
- Category: market · region China · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/76149-sow-herd-reduction-diverges-from-spot-prices-hog-cycle-lags-and-2027-outlook
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md)

## Why it matters

Pork output is still supported by productivity gains, so feed demand from Chinese hog farms stays subdued near term even as the herd shrinks, delaying any recovery in feed demand.

## Read by commodity

- HOGS: bearish ▼

## Sources

- finance.sina.com.cn: https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/wemedia/2026-11-03/doc-inixkmap0304025.shtml

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.