# India: Weak Southwest Monsoon and El Nino Threaten Winter Sowing - Sugaronline

> India's 2026 southwest monsoon ended 13% below the long-period average, the fourth lowest since 2001. Reservoir storage is well below normal, and below-normal October rain is forecast. Kharif sowing is down only 1% so far, but rabi planting is expected to shift toward drought-tolerant crops.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T21:19:12.130Z
- Category: weather · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/76108-india-weak-southwest-monsoon-and-el-nino-threaten-winter-sowing-sugaronline
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Weak monsoon rainfall and low reservoir levels can cut Indian rice and pulse output and reduce water-intensive rabi planting. Tighter domestic supply could support rice prices and Indian feed-grain demand.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2024-08-29 | [Prolonged Monsoon Rains Threaten India’s Crop Outlook \| Headlines](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28729-prolonged-monsoon-rains-threaten-india-s-crop-outlook-headlines.md) | +2.3% | -1.4% |
| RICE | 2023-05-16 | [Explainer: Why El Nino is a concern for Indian monsoon rains?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35897-explainer-why-el-nino-is-a-concern-for-indian-monsoon-rains.md) | -5.7% | +3.4% |
| RICE | 2023-09-30 | [India's monsoon rains hit five-year low due to El Nino](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34001-india-s-monsoon-rains-hit-five-year-low-due-to-el-nino.md) | +0.8% | +1.9% |
| RICE | 2023-05-05 | [‘Developing’ El Nino may hit India’s maize, soya and rice output, says FAO   - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35870-developing-el-nino-may-hit-india-s-maize-soya-and-rice-output-says-fao-the.md) | +1.8% | -0.5% |
| RICE | 2023-10-19 | [El Nino to continue into mid-2024, threatening agriculture](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33549-el-nino-to-continue-into-mid-2024-threatening-agriculture.md) | +1.6% | +6.8% |

## Sources

- sugaronline.com: https://www.sugaronline.com/report/india-weak-southwest-monsoon-and-el-nino-threaten-winter-sowing/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.