# Can gold extend its rebound from the YTD low beyond $3,900 as Fed hike bets limit gains?

> Gold rebounded at the start of the week after falling below $3,900 on Friday to its lowest level since October 2025. Hopes for a US-Iran diplomatic deal weighed on the safe-haven dollar, while oil-led inflation kept Fed rate-hike expectations alive. Iran proposed a 48-hour plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T21:18:58.504Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/76106-can-gold-extend-its-rebound-from-the-ytd-low-beyond-3-900-as-fed-hike-bets
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

Diplomacy-driven declines in oil reduce inflation and rate-hike expectations, supporting gold and weakening the dollar. A failed deal or renewed strikes could reverse this and push energy and fertilizer costs higher for feed producers.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼
- WTI: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2020-06-08 | [Gold gains as investors bet on dovish signals from Fed - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52529-gold-gains-as-investors-bet-on-dovish-signals-from-fed-markets-business-recorder.md) | +0.7% | +0.4% |
| DXY | 2017-07-27 | [Pound hits 10-month high against dollar after Fed caution – as it happened \| Business \| The Guardian](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70205-pound-hits-10-month-high-against-dollar-after-fed-caution-as-it-happened.md) | -0.6% | -0.5% |
| DXY | 2026-07-29 | [Gold trims gain as Fed holds rates, signals hike support](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18264-gold-trims-gain-as-fed-holds-rates-signals-hike-support.md) | -0.9% | -2.0% |
| DXY | 2024-08-01 | [Gold extends record rally on Fed rate-cut bets, softer dollar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29144-gold-extends-record-rally-on-fed-rate-cut-bets-softer-dollar.md) | -0.1% | -1.4% |
| DXY | 2025-03-20 | [Gold Hits Record High As Fed Signals Rate Cuts Amid Economic Tensions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25478-gold-hits-record-high-as-fed-signals-rate-cuts-amid-economic-tensions.md) | +0.3% | -2.0% |
| WTI | 2018-11-08 | [Canadian dollar hits eight-week low as U.S. Fed affirms rate hike policy - The Globe and Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62276-canadian-dollar-hits-eight-week-low-as-u-s-fed-affirms-rate-hike-policy-the.md) | -8.9% | -16.5% |
| WTI | 2023-04-17 | [Canadian dollar slips, pressured by Fed rate hike bets - The Globe and Mail](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36641-canadian-dollar-slips-pressured-by-fed-rate-hike-bets-the-globe-and-mail.md) | -5.7% | -15.2% |
| WTI | 2026-07-28 | [Canadian dollar rebounds from two-week low ahead of Fed decision \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18590-canadian-dollar-rebounds-from-two-week-low-ahead-of-fed-decision-reuters.md) | +2.0% | +5.9% |

## Sources

- tmgm.com: https://www.tmgm.com/en-in/analysis/market-news/article/gold-struggles-to-build-on-recovery-from-ytd-low-beyond-3-900-as-fed-hike-bets-cap-gains-202611020514

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.