# Strong El Niño threatens soybeans in 13 states

> A Cerasa Experience study says a strong El Niño could reduce soybean yields in at least 13 Brazilian states, with Mato Grosso and Goiás facing losses above 400,000 tonnes. Brazil's crop could fall to 163 million tonnes in that scenario.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T21:16:49.649Z
- Category: weather · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/76071-strong-el-nino-threatens-soybeans-in-13-states
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A possible drop to 163 million tonnes would be a significant supply loss for world soybean markets, supporting prices if the El Niño impact materializes.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2020-12-01 | [La Niña Threatens Price Stability \| Feed & Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49573-la-nina-threatens-price-stability-feed-and-grain.md) | -0.9% | +10.9% |
| SOY | 2026-08-05 | [Dry Spell in Key Brazilian Soybean Regions Threatens Timely Planting of 2026/27 Crop — BRZ News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13422-dry-spell-in-key-brazilian-soybean-regions-threatens-timely-planting-of-2026-27.md) | -0.6% | +13.1% |
| SOY | 2022-09-13 | [Most Top Corn, Soybean States Well Below Normal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13328-most-top-corn-soybean-states-well-below-normal.md) | -5.7% | -11.3% |
| SOY | 2019-01-18 | [What's Behind the Rise in Soybean ETF?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12389-what-s-behind-the-rise-in-soybean-etf.md) | +1.9% | -0.0% |
| SOY | 2026-08-10 | [El Niño's Growing Threat: A Slower Harvest at Home, A Bigger Problem in Brazil - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17833-el-nino-s-growing-threat-a-slower-harvest-at-home-a-bigger-problem-in-brazil.md) | +1.5% | +11.9% |
| SBM | 2026-08-05 | [Dry Spell in Key Brazilian Soybean Regions Threatens Timely Planting of 2026/27 Crop — BRZ News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13422-dry-spell-in-key-brazilian-soybean-regions-threatens-timely-planting-of-2026-27.md) | -1.8% | +10.3% |
| SBM | 2019-01-18 | [What's Behind the Rise in Soybean ETF?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12389-what-s-behind-the-rise-in-soybean-etf.md) | +0.5% | -1.8% |
| SBM | 2026-01-29 | [Heat wave hits Argentina, threatening corn and soybean crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13817-heat-wave-hits-argentina-threatening-corn-and-soybean-crops.md) | -0.4% | +8.5% |

## Sources

- spacemoney.com.br: https://www.spacemoney.com.br/agronegocio/el-nino-soja-13-estados/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.