# Still-Negative Japanese Real Rates Should Continue to Support USD/JPY: UBS

> The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.25% last week and for the first time assessed underlying inflation as generally consistent with its 2% target. UBS says elevated oil prices, high US yields and still-negative Japanese real rates should keep supporting USD/JPY, though the pause reduces the risk of further sharp yen weakness.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T21:11:35.377Z
- Category: macro · region Japan · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/75916-still-negative-japanese-real-rates-should-continue-to-support-usd-jpy-ubs
- Commodities: [Japanese Yen (JPY per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDJPY.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md)

## Why it matters

Negative real rates in Japan and high US yields widen the yield gap that favors the dollar, which keeps the yen expensive for importers of US feed commodities. Any shift in BoJ tightening would be the main factor that could narrow the gap.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- WTI: bullish ▲
- USDJPY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2018-04-27 | [Rising crude prices supportive to corn market - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65539-rising-crude-prices-supportive-to-corn-market-brownfield-ag-news.md) | +0.4% | +3.8% |
| WTI | 2019-01-14 | [The Week Ahead: Will the ringgit and oil prices continue to do well this week? \| KLSE Screener](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61350-the-week-ahead-will-the-ringgit-and-oil-prices-continue-to-do-well-this-week.md) | +4.2% | +2.4% |
| WTI | 2016-11-30 | [USD JPY breaks out to new highs as dollar surges and safe havens suffer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/74086-usd-jpy-breaks-out-to-new-highs-as-dollar-surges-and-safe-havens-suffer.md) | +12.5% | +19.3% |
| WTI | 2023-10-06 | [Commodity sector supported by peak rates, tight supply focus \| Saxo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33535-commodity-sector-supported-by-peak-rates-tight-supply-focus-saxo.md) | +0.7% | +0.7% |
| WTI | 2021-11-05 | [Canadian dollar steadies as jobs gain supports rate hike bets - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44268-canadian-dollar-steadies-as-jobs-gain-supports-rate-hike-bets-markets-business.md) | +3.4% | -15.9% |
| DXY | 2022-03-07 | [The USD/VND rate may continue to rise](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42562-the-usd-vnd-rate-may-continue-to-rise.md) | +0.3% | -1.0% |
| DXY | 2019-05-10 | [The U.S. Dollar Is Suggesting Global Rates Will Continue To Fall \| Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59255-the-u-s-dollar-is-suggesting-global-rates-will-continue-to-fall-investing-com.md) | +0.2% | -0.1% |
| DXY | 2018-02-05 | [USD Rebound May Continue in the Short Term \| Citi Wealth Insights](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12002-usd-rebound-may-continue-in-the-short-term-citi-wealth-insights.md) | +1.1% | +0.6% |

## Sources

- ca.investing.com: https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stillnegative-japanese-real-rates-should-continue-to-support-usdjpy-ubs-93CH-4921185
- investing.com: https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/stillnegative-japanese-real-rates-should-continue-to-support-usdjpy-ubs-93CH-4990645

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.