# Surging dollar and post-election fiscal uncertainty raise bets on a pause in the Selic rate cut

> Following Lula's election victory, markets now expect the Brazilian central bank to hold the Selic at 13.75% at its Wednesday meeting instead of cutting by 25 basis points. The dollar rose 9% during the prior week, closing at R$5.44, and IPCA inflation is 4.58% over 12 months.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T21:10:44.375Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/75884-surging-dollar-and-post-election-fiscal-uncertainty-raise-bets-on-a-pause-in
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A sharp real depreciation and rate-hold expectations raise domestic feed costs in Brazil and tighten financing for the livestock and poultry sectors, while a weaker real supports Brazilian export competitiveness.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2023-09-08 | [Why the US Fed's interest rate pause is a win for dollar bulls \| The National](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34010-why-the-us-fed-s-interest-rate-pause-is-a-win-for-dollar-bulls-the-national.md) | -2.2% | +4.1% |
| USDBRL | 2024-07-02 | [Latam assets drop on fiscal policy, interest rates caution](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9454-latam-assets-drop-on-fiscal-policy-interest-rates-caution.md) | -2.8% | +1.2% |
| USDBRL | 2020-03-19 | [Why the U.S. dollar’s relentless rally is causing pain for emerging markets - MarketWatch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7018-why-the-u-s-dollar-s-relentless-rally-is-causing-pain-for-emerging-markets.md) | -1.1% | +2.8% |
| USDBRL | 2018-05-15 | [Brazil's real continues its slump amid election uncertainty \| AP News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65228-brazil-s-real-continues-its-slump-amid-election-uncertainty-ap-news.md) | +2.4% | +1.5% |
| USDBRL | 2016-11-11 | [Uncertainty over Trump leads to reevaluation of rate cuts in Brazil - BNamericas](https://feedsoft.ai/events/74027-uncertainty-over-trump-leads-to-reevaluation-of-rate-cuts-in-brazil-bnamericas.md) | +0.7% | -0.4% |

## Sources

- oglobo.globo.com: https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/financas/noticia/2026/11/02/disparada-do-dolar-e-incerteza-fiscal-pos-eleicoes-elevam-apostas-em-pausa-no-corte-da-selic.ghtml

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.