# EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: 2 Trades to Watch

> EUR/USD rebounded from its 2026 low as oil fell over 2% toward $110 a barrel on Qatari mediation to resume US-Iran talks. German September retail sales fell 2% month-on-month, well below expectations of a 0.4% gain.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T21:10:31.057Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/75880-eur-usd-oil-forecast-2-trades-to-watch
- Commodities: [British Pound (USD per GBP)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/GBPUSD.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md)

## Why it matters

Falling oil eases energy-driven inflation fears and lowers fuel and fertiliser cost pressure on feed producers. Weaker euro-area consumption data and a softer dollar shift currency flows that influence US grain export competitiveness.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼
- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼
- EURUSD: bullish ▲
- GBPUSD: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2026-04-01 | [Grain, Oilseed Prices Fall as Traders Look for End to Iran War - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19762-grain-oilseed-prices-fall-as-traders-look-for-end-to-iran-war-bloomberg.md) | -6.6% | +6.7% |
| WTI | 2026-04-29 | [UAE leaves OPEC: oil outlook for traders \| IG International](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19888-uae-leaves-opec-oil-outlook-for-traders-ig-international.md) | +2.2% | -10.9% |
| WTI | 2026-03-24 | [Oil prices drop 2% as Iran considers US proposal to end war \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8151-oil-prices-drop-2-as-iran-considers-us-proposal-to-end-war-reuters.md) | +17.0% | +4.7% |
| WTI | 2026-08-28 | [Nymex Overview: Oil Prices Easing, on Track to End Week Lower -- OPIS - MarketWatch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18054-nymex-overview-oil-prices-easing-on-track-to-end-week-lower-opis-marketwatch.md) | +9.2% | +13.1% |
| WTI | 2024-05-01 | [Oil falls to 7-week low on surprise US storage build, Middle East hopes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7230-oil-falls-to-7-week-low-on-surprise-us-storage-build-middle-east-hopes.md) | -4.3% | -3.7% |
| BRENT | 2026-04-01 | [Grain, Oilseed Prices Fall as Traders Look for End to Iran War - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19762-grain-oilseed-prices-fall-as-traders-look-for-end-to-iran-war-bloomberg.md) | -12.2% | -1.1% |
| BRENT | 2026-04-29 | [UAE leaves OPEC: oil outlook for traders \| IG International](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19888-uae-leaves-opec-oil-outlook-for-traders-ig-international.md) | -1.9% | -16.4% |
| BRENT | 2026-03-24 | [Oil prices drop 2% as Iran considers US proposal to end war \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8151-oil-prices-drop-2-as-iran-considers-us-proposal-to-end-war-reuters.md) | +15.1% | +0.4% |

## Sources

- forex.com: https://www.forex.com/en/news-and-analysis/gbp-usd-dax-forecast-two-trades-to-watch-2026-11-03/
- forex.com: https://www.forex.com/en-us/news-and-analysis/gbp-usd-dax-forecast-two-trades-to-watch-2026-11-03/
- investing.com: https://www.investing.com/analysis/eurusd-oil-forecast-2-trades-to-watch-200690695
- investing.com: https://www.investing.com/analysis/gbpusd-dax-forecast-2-trades-to-watch-200690775

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.