# El Niño ONI at +2.2 Flags 2027 Yield Risk; Normal Rain Keeps Harvest Flowing | Palm Oil Economics

> Normal rainfall across the Malaysian and Indonesian palm belts supports near-term harvesting, with September Malaysian CPO output at 2.12 million tonnes. The article says El Niño with an ONI of +2.2 threatens late-2026 and 2027 yields, with palm stocks 83% above average.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T12:12:26.220Z
- Category: weather · region Malaysia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/75419-el-nino-oni-at-2-2-flags-2027-yield-risk-normal-rain-keeps-harvest-flowing-palm
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

Expected yield losses from El Niño in 2027 are a bullish medium-term factor for palm oil, though high stocks limit near-term upside.

## Read by commodity

- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2026-10-01 | [El Niño Set to Crimp Palm Oil Output in 2027, Squeezing Supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17546-el-nino-set-to-crimp-palm-oil-output-in-2027-squeezing-supply.md) | -5.8% | -3.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2024-10-24 | [Palm oil reaches highest since 2022, adding to food price risks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27955-palm-oil-reaches-highest-since-2022-adding-to-food-price-risks.md) | +0.5% | +9.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-04-13 | [IMD Forecasts Below Normal South West Monsoon Rainfall in 2026, El Niño to Impact India’s Kharif Season](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19635-imd-forecasts-below-normal-south-west-monsoon-rainfall-in-2026-el-nino-to.md) | -1.0% | -0.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-23 | [El Nino poses risk to 2024 palm oil output in Indonesia, Malaysia - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33277-el-nino-poses-risk-to-2024-palm-oil-output-in-indonesia-malaysia-the.md) | -0.7% | -3.3% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-09-29 | [Indonesian Palm Oil Association sees palm oil prices rising in 2024 as El Nino crimps domestic output](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34219-indonesian-palm-oil-association-sees-palm-oil-prices-rising-in-2024-as-el-nino.md) | -4.5% | -3.5% |

## Sources

- palmoileconomics.com: https://palmoileconomics.com/news/2026-11-02-weather

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.