# Lula’s Election Win Sends Brazil’s Currency, and Its Soybean Edge, Lower

> Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.79% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%, securing a fourth nonconsecutive term. Brazil's real weakened about 11% against the dollar after the vote, and US soybean futures dropped more than 20 cents before partly recovering.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T12:08:36.935Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/75362-lula-s-election-win-sends-brazil-s-currency-and-its-soybean-edge-lower
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker real makes Brazilian soybeans cheaper for foreign buyers, adding export competition that can pressure US soybean and meal prices, while costlier imported fertilizer raises Brazilian farm costs.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2018-06-06 | [Brazil currency skids as election woes add to pessimism](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5376-brazil-currency-skids-as-election-woes-add-to-pessimism.md) | -2.7% | +2.7% |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-26 | [Elections in Brazil: Lula returns to power, markets react with panic. Brazilian ETF loses nearly 15% in Tokyo. What about USDBRL, soybeans, sugar, BRAComp, and ETFs?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17288-elections-in-brazil-lula-returns-to-power-markets-react-with-panic-brazilian.md) | +7.6% | — |
| USDBRL | 2024-12-19 | [Why Brazil’s currency is plunging](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27149-why-brazil-s-currency-is-plunging.md) | -0.5% | -2.5% |
| USDBRL | 2017-05-18 | [U.S. grains: Soybeans fall as Brazilian currency dives - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7583-u-s-grains-soybeans-fall-as-brazilian-currency-dives-agcanada.md) | +5.6% | +5.6% |
| USDBRL | 2020-01-23 | [With a Big Crop Expected, Brazil's Soybean Harvest Is Slow](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54912-with-a-big-crop-expected-brazil-s-soybean-harvest-is-slow.md) | +0.7% | +4.8% |
| SOY | 2026-10-26 | [Elections in Brazil: Lula returns to power, markets react with panic. Brazilian ETF loses nearly 15% in Tokyo. What about USDBRL, soybeans, sugar, BRAComp, and ETFs?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17288-elections-in-brazil-lula-returns-to-power-markets-react-with-panic-brazilian.md) | -1.5% | — |
| SOY | 2017-05-18 | [U.S. grains: Soybeans fall as Brazilian currency dives - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7583-u-s-grains-soybeans-fall-as-brazilian-currency-dives-agcanada.md) | -2.8% | -4.2% |
| SOY | 2017-05-18 | [Brazil's Scandal Hits Soybean Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7584-brazil-s-scandal-hits-soybean-prices.md) | -2.8% | -4.2% |

## Sources

- global-agriculture.com: https://www.global-agriculture.com/latam-agriculture/lulas-election-win-sends-brazils-currency-and-its-soybean-edge-lower/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.