# FX Weekly Overview (Brazil Issue)

> StoneX's weekly FX outlook for Brazil says Lula's unexpected win in the presidential runoff triggered a sharp reversal in positioning, which had favored Flávio Bolsonaro. The BRL posted its largest daily depreciation since 2002 and its largest weekly fall since 2008, and expectations of expansionist fiscal policy under Lula's fourth term keep pressure on the currency.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T09:09:39.100Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/75247-fx-weekly-overview-brazil-issue
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker real makes Brazilian soybeans, corn and meal cheaper in dollar terms, which tends to encourage export selling and weigh on global prices. Fiscal risk and Selic policy will also shape Brazil's farm financing costs and export competitiveness.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2024-05-27 | [FX Weekly Overview (Brazil Issue)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30478-fx-weekly-overview-brazil-issue.md) | +1.7% | +5.6% |
| USDBRL | 2022-06-10 | [FX Weekly Summary (Brazil Issue)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11314-fx-weekly-summary-brazil-issue.md) | +3.4% | +9.3% |
| USDBRL | 2022-10-03 | [FX Weekly Summary (Brazil Issue)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7983-fx-weekly-summary-brazil-issue.md) | -3.4% | -2.9% |
| USDBRL | 2024-02-14 | [FX Weekly Summary (Brazil Issue)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31877-fx-weekly-summary-brazil-issue.md) | -0.5% | +0.5% |
| USDBRL | 2024-08-26 | [FX Weekly Summary (Brazil Issue)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29020-fx-weekly-summary-brazil-issue.md) | +2.0% | +0.5% |
| SOY | 2023-01-20 | [Brazil's real set for 2% weekly loss on worries over c.bank independence \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37979-brazil-s-real-set-for-2-weekly-loss-on-worries-over-c-bank-independence.md) | +0.6% | +0.8% |
| SOY | 2020-03-04 | [Brazil central bank to intervene in FX swaps market on Thursday](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54310-brazil-central-bank-to-intervene-in-fx-swaps-market-on-thursday.md) | -2.2% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2018-10-08 | [Brazil's real, stocks rally on Bolsonaro win](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7665-brazil-s-real-stocks-rally-on-bolsonaro-win.md) | -0.2% | +0.7% |

## Sources

- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en/insights/fx-weekly-overview-brazil-issue-2026-11-02/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.