# Euro: Policy risks could revive swings against US Dollar - Commerzbank

> Commerzbank says EUR/USD has settled near 1.12 after falling from about 1.16 at the end of September, with options-implied volatility declining. The bank argues that the market expects the Fed and ECB to move in lockstep with only two to three further hikes priced in. It warns that low FX volatility is not justified given rising geopolitical and fiscal risks.

- Date: 2026-11-02 · published 2026-11-02T09:09:35.057Z
- Category: macro · region Europe · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/75243-euro-policy-risks-could-revive-swings-against-us-dollar-commerzbank
- Commodities: [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md)

## Why it matters

A calm currency market can mask sudden swings that change the real cost of US-priced grain, oilseed and meal imports for European and other non-dollar buyers. Any policy or fiscal shock could quickly revive currency-driven price moves.

## Read by commodity

- EURUSD: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2025-04-14 | ['Attentive' ECB can lean against euro rise \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25337-attentive-ecb-can-lean-against-euro-rise-reuters.md) | +0.6% | -0.5% |
| EURUSD | 2021-04-22 | [Euro and U.S. dollar waffle as markets weigh ECB policy talk](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47818-euro-and-u-s-dollar-waffle-as-markets-weigh-ecb-policy-talk.md) | +0.5% | +1.5% |
| EURUSD | 2018-11-14 | [ECB Bond-Buying Weakened Euro 12% Against Dollar, Study Finds - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62237-ecb-bond-buying-weakened-euro-12-against-dollar-study-finds-bloomberg.md) | +0.9% | +0.6% |
| EURUSD | 2020-12-09 | [ECB Euro Cheat Sheet: Weak Dollar Trend Makes It More Difficult To Reverse EUR/USD Gains](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49862-ecb-euro-cheat-sheet-weak-dollar-trend-makes-it-more-difficult-to-reverse-eur.md) | +0.4% | +1.2% |
| EURUSD | 2021-02-18 | [Euro-Dollar Rate, the ECB's Currency Concerns and Two Competing Outlooks for 2021](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48855-euro-dollar-rate-the-ecb-s-currency-concerns-and-two-competing-outlooks-for-2021.md) | +0.8% | -1.1% |

## Sources

- fxstreet.com: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-policy-risks-could-revive-swings-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202611020632

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.