# Brazil runoff polls show Lula and Bolsonaro tied | Adalytica

> Final polls before Brazil's presidential runoff show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a statistical tie, with Datafolha and Quaest results within their margins of error. Investors are pricing elevated political risk, and the EWZ fund has fallen sharply in recent sessions.

- Date: 2026-11-01 · published 2026-11-02T06:09:03.929Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/74926-brazil-runoff-polls-show-lula-and-bolsonaro-tied-adalytica
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A Lula win would likely bring more state spending and a weaker real, while a Bolsonaro win would be read as market-friendly. The currency move would change Brazilian export competitiveness for soybeans, corn and meal.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2023-02-08 | [Brazil central bank autonomy becomes political punching bag for Lula](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37530-brazil-central-bank-autonomy-becomes-political-punching-bag-for-lula.md) | -0.3% | -1.2% |
| USDBRL | 2026-06-24 | [Brazilian Real: LatAm policy paths and FX levels – Societe Generale](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19020-brazilian-real-latam-policy-paths-and-fx-levels-societe-generale.md) | -0.3% | -2.4% |
| USDBRL | 2022-12-07 | [Brazil Holds Key Rate at 13.75% as Lula’s Spending Plan Adds to Inflation Risk - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38433-brazil-holds-key-rate-at-13-75-as-lula-s-spending-plan-adds-to-inflation-risk.md) | +0.5% | +2.7% |
| USDBRL | 2023-08-07 | [Outlook for the Brazilian Real and the real economy](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34792-outlook-for-the-brazilian-real-and-the-real-economy.md) | +0.8% | +1.8% |
| USDBRL | 2023-12-12 | [USDBRL should reflect Brazil's GDP, employment and services in the US, and data for China](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32942-usdbrl-should-reflect-brazil-s-gdp-employment-and-services-in-the-us-and-data.md) | -0.1% | -1.0% |

## Sources

- adalytica.com: https://adalytica.com/news/brazil-runoff-polls-lula-bolsonaro-tied-c93274e3

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.