# Turner's Take Ag Markets | HRW Wheat Leads CBOT Higher

> The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point and signaled a possible pause due to recent bank failures and the debt ceiling deadline. KC hard red winter wheat settled 45 cents higher, and CBOT rallied into the close on drone attacks on the Kremlin. The commentary says grains and oilseeds were oversold and due for a recovery.

- Date: 2023-05-03 · published 2023-05-03T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7383-turner-s-take-ag-markets-hrw-wheat-leads-cbot-higher
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Rate policy and the debt ceiling affect the dollar and fund flows, while the geopolitical rally offered a short-covering bounce in wheat. Analysts expect continued volatility as old-crop markets transition to new crop.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2023-05-07 | 5 | +15.5% | 3.4 | On May 3 KC HRW wheat settled 45 cents higher as oversold grains rebounded, helped by a dovish Fed signal and Kremlin drone attacks that lifted Black Sea risk premium, which fits a sharp 5-day move. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2016-11-04 | [Farming News - Wheat Market Report: High Court ruling affects futures](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73888-farming-news-wheat-market-report-high-court-ruling-affects-futures.md) | -0.4% | -4.9% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-12-20 | [Welch gives wheat market outlook for 2018 \| texaswheat.org](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67517-welch-gives-wheat-market-outlook-for-2018-texaswheat-org.md) | +1.3% | +1.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-05-16 | [Corn Hands the Baton to Wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10238-corn-hands-the-baton-to-wheat.md) | +6.0% | +5.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-06-29 | [WHEAT SCOOPS: $11 wheat, why and how long? – The Seam](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40982-wheat-scoops-11-wheat-why-and-how-long-the-seam.md) | -13.7% | -12.4% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-05-13 | [Biofuel bets meet rising food shortage fears after USDA slashes U.S. wheat crop forecast - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10794-biofuel-bets-meet-rising-food-shortage-fears-after-usda-slashes-u-s-wheat-crop.md) | -2.3% | -12.5% |
| WHEAT | 2016-11-04 | [Farming News - Wheat Market Report: High Court ruling affects futures](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73888-farming-news-wheat-market-report-high-court-ruling-affects-futures.md) | +0.1% | +0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2017-12-20 | [Welch gives wheat market outlook for 2018 \| texaswheat.org](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67517-welch-gives-wheat-market-outlook-for-2018-texaswheat-org.md) | +0.4% | +0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2018-05-16 | [Corn Hands the Baton to Wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10238-corn-hands-the-baton-to-wheat.md) | +4.0% | +3.6% |

## Sources

- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/turner-s-take-ag-markets-hrw-wheat-leads-cbot-higher/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.