# Evening Report | Wheat's war premium - Pro Farmer

> Wheat futures rallied sharply on July 10 after Russia reportedly halted shipping through the Don-Azov Channel following a Ukrainian attack on the Sea of Azov. Russia also banned diesel exports after refinery damage, lifting heating oil futures more than 11% during the week and supporting soybean oil. September SRW wheat hit a six-week high of $6.40 1/4 and HRW reached $6.76 1/4.

- Date: 2026-07-10 · published 2026-07-10T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7341-evening-report-wheat-s-war-premium-pro-farmer
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

Threats to Russian wheat export flows and a diesel export ban tighten supply and lift energy costs, supporting grain and soybean oil prices. Feed buyers face higher wheat and fuel-linked costs while the conflict persists.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲
- WTI: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- DIESEL: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2026-07-14 | 5 | +12.1% | 3.8 | Russia reportedly halted Don-Azov shipping on July 10 and September HRW reached $6.76, which started the rally through a trade-flow and war-premium mechanism. |
| SBO | 2026-07-13 | 5 | +7.7% | 2.9 | Russia's diesel export ban and refinery damage lifted heating oil more than 11% during the week, which raises biofuel feedstock demand and input-cost parity and directly supported soybean oil in the 5-day window. |
| SBO | 2026-07-16 | 5 | +7.1% | 2.9 | Russian diesel export ban and an 11% weekly jump in heating oil supported soybean oil through energy and biofuel-linked input cost channels, alongside a wheat rally that lifted the grains complex. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-08-27 | [Wheat rallies as Black Sea exports stall - Farmers Weekly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17950-wheat-rallies-as-black-sea-exports-stall-farmers-weekly.md) | +4.0% | +7.1% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-30 | [First Thing Today \| Wheat rallies overnight on Black Sea shipping disruptions - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18380-first-thing-today-wheat-rallies-overnight-on-black-sea-shipping-disruptions-pro.md) | -1.3% | +3.6% |
| WHEAT | 2020-03-26 | [Win for farmers as 'toilet roll effect' hits wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54170-win-for-farmers-as-toilet-roll-effect-hits-wheat-prices.md) | +1.9% | +2.0% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-01 | [Wheat at war \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17431-wheat-at-war-the-star.md) | +1.0% | +2.6% |
| WHEAT | 2026-07-14 | [Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide \| Saxo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7272-wheat-surges-as-war-weather-and-short-covering-collide-saxo.md) | +4.5% | +1.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-07-30 | [First Thing Today \| Wheat rallies overnight on Black Sea shipping disruptions - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18380-first-thing-today-wheat-rallies-overnight-on-black-sea-shipping-disruptions-pro.md) | -1.7% | +9.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2020-03-26 | [Win for farmers as 'toilet roll effect' hits wheat prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54170-win-for-farmers-as-toilet-roll-effect-hits-wheat-prices.md) | -5.2% | -3.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-09-01 | [Wheat at war \| The Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17431-wheat-at-war-the-star.md) | -2.5% | -7.7% |

## Sources

- profarmer.com: https://www.profarmer.com/pro-farmer-max/evening-report/evening-report-wheats-war-premium

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.