# Long-term forecasters rethinking weather prediction methods

> Indiana state climatologist Ken Scheeringa explains why long-range forecasts have been inconsistent. A strong La Niña forecast for July did not verify, and forecasters now expect a weaker La Niña to return. Some early signs of change were already visible, including drought in the southeastern US.

- Date: 2016-12-09 · published 2016-12-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/73406-long-term-forecasters-rethinking-weather-prediction-methods
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Uncertain long-range forecasts add weather risk premium for the coming growing season, but without a confirmed drought threat the effect on feed grain prices is limited.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2019-03-18 | [Predicting Midwest Corn Yield and Quality from Weather - WeatherNation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59921-predicting-midwest-corn-yield-and-quality-from-weather-weathernation.md) | +2.6% | -3.5% |
| CORN | 2024-06-13 | [La Nina weather 65% likely to develop in July-Sept, says US forecaster \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29658-la-nina-weather-65-likely-to-develop-in-july-sept-says-us-forecaster-reuters.md) | -2.1% | -8.8% |
| CORN | 2025-05-29 | [Tariff Tangles Ignored: Why Corn and Soybeans Are Sticking to Weather, Not Washington, for Price Direction](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24701-tariff-tangles-ignored-why-corn-and-soybeans-are-sticking-to-weather-not.md) | -1.0% | -6.3% |
| CORN | 2024-02-16 | [Strategie Grains has lowered its forecast for EU wheat production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31601-strategie-grains-has-lowered-its-forecast-for-eu-wheat-production.md) | +0.5% | +4.8% |
| CORN | 2026-08-04 | [Grains Fall on Profit Taking, Weather, Money Flow: Cattle See Strong Chart Action - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12808-grains-fall-on-profit-taking-weather-money-flow-cattle-see-strong-chart-action.md) | -1.3% | +10.1% |
| SOY | 2025-05-29 | [Tariff Tangles Ignored: Why Corn and Soybeans Are Sticking to Weather, Not Washington, for Price Direction](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24701-tariff-tangles-ignored-why-corn-and-soybeans-are-sticking-to-weather-not.md) | -0.3% | -2.5% |
| SOY | 2026-08-04 | [Grains Fall on Profit Taking, Weather, Money Flow: Cattle See Strong Chart Action - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12808-grains-fall-on-profit-taking-weather-money-flow-cattle-see-strong-chart-action.md) | -0.9% | +9.1% |
| SOY | 2024-01-11 | [Regional US Weather Outlook for 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32046-regional-us-weather-outlook-for-2024.md) | -1.2% | -2.9% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/farm-business/long-term-forecasters-rethinking-weather-prediction-methods

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.