# US Plains HRW Wheat-Basis flat, futures rally spurs farmer sales

> Hard red winter wheat basis bids were flat across the southern Plains on July 10 as futures rallied and some farmers sold grain. KC September wheat rose more than 3% to $6.75 per bushel after Russia temporarily halted shipping through the Don-Azov channel. USDA pegged 2026-27 US wheat production at 1.536 billion bushels, with HRW output at 471 million bushels, down from 497 million in June.

- Date: 2026-07-10 · published 2026-07-10T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Black Sea · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7340-us-plains-hrw-wheat-basis-flat-futures-rally-spurs-farmer-sales
- Commodities: [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

The smallest US wheat crop since 1970/71 and a Black Sea shipping halt tighten global wheat supply, supporting prices. Farmer selling to ease storage constraints adds some near-term supply that may cap basis gains.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- KWHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2026-07-14 | 5 | +12.1% | 3.8 | KC September wheat rose over 3% to $6.75 on July 10 on the Azov halt, and USDA cut HRW output to 471 million bushels, which tightens HRW supply. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| KWHEAT | 2026-10-29 | [Wheat Futures Turn Higher After USDA Export Sales Hit… - SquawkNews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/2010-wheat-futures-turn-higher-after-usda-export-sales-hit-squawknews.md) | -2.3% | — |
| KWHEAT | 2016-12-13 | [Futures up in week of wheat gains \| VIC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73430-futures-up-in-week-of-wheat-gains-vic.md) | +4.2% | +8.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2026-10-29 | [After the Bell \| Wheat bounces on strong export sales - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/1994-after-the-bell-wheat-bounces-on-strong-export-sales-pro-farmer.md) | -2.3% | — |
| KWHEAT | 2020-03-20 | [CBOT wheat futures rise on reports of China buying US wheat](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6106-cbot-wheat-futures-rise-on-reports-of-china-buying-us-wheat.md) | +4.7% | +2.8% |
| KWHEAT | 2025-07-30 | [Basis flat as farmer selling increases slightly — TradingView News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23803-basis-flat-as-farmer-selling-increases-slightly-tradingview-news.md) | -2.7% | -4.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-10-29 | [Wheat Futures Turn Higher After USDA Export Sales Hit… - SquawkNews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/2010-wheat-futures-turn-higher-after-usda-export-sales-hit-squawknews.md) | -0.4% | — |
| WHEAT | 2016-12-13 | [Futures up in week of wheat gains \| VIC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73430-futures-up-in-week-of-wheat-gains-vic.md) | -1.2% | +1.2% |
| WHEAT | 2020-04-23 | [U.S. grains: Export hopes push soy, corn, wheat futures higher - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53671-u-s-grains-export-hopes-push-soy-corn-wheat-futures-higher-grainews.md) | -1.1% | +0.1% |

## Sources

- sahmcapital.com: https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/us-plains-hrw-wheat-basis-flat-futures-rally-spurs-farmer-sales-2026-07-10

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.