# Russia’s UN Grain Deal Boomerang: Implications for the Deal and Global Food Prices

> Russia rejoined the UN Black Sea Grain Initiative after pausing its participation when its Black Sea Fleet was attacked near Sevastopol. The deal, signed in July for 120 days, is up for renewal on November 19, and Russia has said its extension is in jeopardy.

- Date: 2022-11-04 · published 2022-11-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7291-russia-s-un-grain-deal-boomerang-implications-for-the-deal-and-global-food
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Uncertainty over renewal of the grain deal keeps risk premium in wheat and corn, since Ukrainian and Russian grain exports depend on it.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-11-07 | 1 | +11.1% | 4.3 | The Nov 19 renewal is in jeopardy because Russia has threatened not to extend, which adds uncertainty about Black Sea supply and supports a risk premium in wheat. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-17 | [Russia-Ukraine grain deal: What does it mean for global food prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35104-russia-ukraine-grain-deal-what-does-it-mean-for-global-food-prices.md) | +2.4% | +2.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-08-07 | [End of the Black Sea Grain Initiative: Implications for sub-Saharan Africa \| IFPRI](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14373-end-of-the-black-sea-grain-initiative-implications-for-sub-saharan-africa-ifpri.md) | +0.5% | -6.9% |
| WHEAT | 2023-04-21 | [The Black Sea Grain Deal: Fragile Cooperation Between Ukraine and Russia \| Lawfare](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14403-the-black-sea-grain-deal-fragile-cooperation-between-ukraine-and-russia-lawfare.md) | -8.6% | -9.9% |
| WHEAT | 2022-01-31 | [Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43173-russia-ukraine-tensions-drive-global-wheat-prices-higher.md) | -1.7% | +0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-18 | [Black Sea grain deal eased global food prices — now it's off and analysts are warning of a price 'roller-coaster' - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35015-black-sea-grain-deal-eased-global-food-prices-now-it-s-off-and-analysts-are.md) | +2.0% | +1.1% |
| CORN | 2023-07-17 | [Russia-Ukraine grain deal: What does it mean for global food prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35104-russia-ukraine-grain-deal-what-does-it-mean-for-global-food-prices.md) | -8.6% | -12.6% |
| CORN | 2022-01-31 | [Russia-Ukraine Tensions Drive Global Wheat Prices Higher](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43173-russia-ukraine-tensions-drive-global-wheat-prices-higher.md) | +0.6% | +6.9% |
| CORN | 2023-07-18 | [Black Sea grain deal eased global food prices — now it's off and analysts are warning of a price 'roller-coaster' - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35015-black-sea-grain-deal-eased-global-food-prices-now-it-s-off-and-analysts-are.md) | +18.0% | -1.3% |

## Sources

- csis.org: https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-un-grain-deal-boomerang-implications-deal-and-global-food-prices

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.