# World Bank Warns Fertilizer Prices Could Rise More Than 30% in 2026 - Ecofin Agency

> The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook projects global fertilizer prices to rise more than 30% in 2026 due to the Middle East conflict. Urea jumped 53.7% in March to $725.6/ton, a four-year high, and DAP and potash also rose.

- Date: 2026-04-30 · published 2026-04-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7256-world-bank-warns-fertilizer-prices-could-rise-more-than-30-in-2026-ecofin-agency
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Nearly a third of seaborne fertilizer trade passes through Hormuz, so the disruption tightens nutrient supply and raises farmers' input costs. Higher costs may reduce planted acreage and support feed grain prices later in the season.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- POTASH: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2026-05-01 | 1 | +4.8% | 4.4 | The World Bank's 2026-04-30 outlook, issued the day before the move, projected fertilizer prices up over 30% and explicitly noted DAP gains, which likely reinforced bullish sentiment and buying interest. |
| DAP | 2026-04-30 | 1 | +4.8% | 4.4 | World Bank's April 30 outlook projecting fertilizer prices up over 30% in 2026, with DAP rising, reinforces bullish sentiment on the day of the move. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-03-05 | [How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6255-how-the-iran-war-could-create-a-fertiliser-shock-an-often-ignored-global-risk.md) | +2.4% | +4.6% |
| CORN | 2026-03-02 | [Why your fertilizer could cost more because of the Iran conflict - MarketWatch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4430-why-your-fertilizer-could-cost-more-because-of-the-iran-conflict-marketwatch.md) | +2.0% | +5.1% |
| CORN | 2026-04-01 | [Fertilizer Prices Have ‘Significant’ Rise After Attack on Iran](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5105-fertilizer-prices-have-significant-rise-after-attack-on-iran.md) | -1.7% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2026-03-23 | [Corn Prices: Crop Hits Two-Week High as Iran War Threatens Fertilizer Supply - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20182-corn-prices-crop-hits-two-week-high-as-iran-war-threatens-fertilizer-supply.md) | -0.3% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2021-09-21 | [Food prices poised to surge with fertilizer at highest in years](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45024-food-prices-poised-to-surge-with-fertilizer-at-highest-in-years.md) | +1.8% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2026-03-05 | [How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6255-how-the-iran-war-could-create-a-fertiliser-shock-an-often-ignored-global-risk.md) | +1.7% | +1.2% |
| WHEAT | 2022-05-06 | [Prices of Most Fertilizers Continue Rise, as Wheat Prices Climb on Supply Concerns \| Farm Policy News \| Illinois](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9741-prices-of-most-fertilizers-continue-rise-as-wheat-prices-climb-on-supply.md) | +0.3% | +0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-17 | [Argentina wheat threatened by high urea fertilizer prices due to  Iran war \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20035-argentina-wheat-threatened-by-high-urea-fertilizer-prices-due-to-iran-war.md) | -0.7% | -0.2% |

## Sources

- ecofinagency.com: https://www.ecofinagency.com/news-industry/3004-55146-world-bank-warns-fertilizer-prices-could-rise-more-than-30-in-2026

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.