# As nitrogen-based fertilizer prices soar, global food inflation looms - The HinduBusinessLine

> Nitrogen fertilizer prices have surged since the West Asia conflict began, with US Gulf urea up 50% to $693/tonne by April 20 and Middle East urea up 76% to $850/tonne as the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Analysts at Capital Economics warn higher input costs could push global food prices up over the next 15 months.

- Date: 2026-04-29 · published 2026-04-29T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7255-as-nitrogen-based-fertilizer-prices-soar-global-food-inflation-looms-the
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

Urea makes up a large share of nitrogen costs for corn and other feed grains, so higher fertilizer prices raise future production costs and support grain prices over time. BMI forecasts Middle East urea easing in the second half of 2026, which limits how long the pressure lasts.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2026-05-01 | 1 | +4.8% | 4.4 | The Hormuz closure and the surge in nitrogen prices raise input costs and cut supply across fertilizers, which spills over into DAP via sulfur/ammonia costs and substitution, though the article focuses on urea. |
| DAP | 2026-04-30 | 1 | +4.8% | 4.4 | Surging nitrogen prices and the effective closure of Hormuz raise input costs and pull phosphate prices higher through ammonia and sulphur linkages and fertilizer substitution. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2022-05-23 | [Global food crisis looms as fertilizer supplies dwindle \| National Geographic](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41331-global-food-crisis-looms-as-fertilizer-supplies-dwindle-national-geographic.md) | +0.0% | -1.2% |
| CORN | 2022-02-24 | [Food inflation risks balloon as prices of wheat to palm oil soar \| INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY NEWS - Business Standard](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9675-food-inflation-risks-balloon-as-prices-of-wheat-to-palm-oil-soar-international.md) | +6.5% | +12.3% |
| CORN | 2026-04-01 | [The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19643-the-iran-war-s-impacts-on-global-fertilizer-markets-and-food-production.md) | -1.7% | +1.5% |
| CORN | 2022-04-04 | [Livestock industry concerned over surging maize, soyameal prices  - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41925-livestock-industry-concerned-over-surging-maize-soyameal-prices-the.md) | +5.4% | -0.7% |
| CORN | 2022-04-06 | [A fertilizer shortage, worsened by war in Ukraine, is driving up global food prices and scarcity](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42132-a-fertilizer-shortage-worsened-by-war-in-ukraine-is-driving-up-global-food.md) | -1.9% | -6.1% |
| WHEAT | 2022-05-23 | [Global food crisis looms as fertilizer supplies dwindle \| National Geographic](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41331-global-food-crisis-looms-as-fertilizer-supplies-dwindle-national-geographic.md) | -2.2% | -3.2% |
| WHEAT | 2022-02-24 | [Food inflation risks balloon as prices of wheat to palm oil soar \| INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY NEWS - Business Standard](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9675-food-inflation-risks-balloon-as-prices-of-wheat-to-palm-oil-soar-international.md) | +6.8% | +25.3% |
| WHEAT | 2026-04-01 | [The Iran war’s impacts on global fertilizer markets and food production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19643-the-iran-war-s-impacts-on-global-fertilizer-markets-and-food-production.md) | -2.5% | +0.9% |

## Sources

- thehindubusinessline.com: https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/as-nitrogen-based-fertilizer-prices-soar-global-food-inflation-looms/article70916894.ece

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.