# Why ENSO forecasters shouldn’t just take their ball and go home during spring | NOAA Climate.gov

> A NOAA Climate.gov guest post explains why ENSO forecasts are difficult in spring, when the tropical Pacific is transitioning between phases. It notes that a weak El Niño is hinted at for later in the year but that the spring predictability barrier limits confidence.

- Date: 2017-02-23 · published 2017-02-23T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/72416-why-enso-forecasters-shouldn-t-just-take-their-ball-and-go-home-during-spring
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

The post is educational and does not change the outlook, but it signals that El Niño forecasts remain uncertain, so markets are unlikely to price in a firm weather shock yet.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-07-27 | [Look South, ENSO Forecasters! \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63937-look-south-enso-forecasters-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +0.9% | -1.9% |
| CORN | 2021-06-01 | [Climate.gov tweet chat: Talk El Niño and La Niña with the ENSO bloggers \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46480-climate-gov-tweet-chat-talk-el-nino-and-la-nina-with-the-enso-bloggers-noaa.md) | +5.1% | +2.4% |
| CORN | 2017-09-18 | [How El Niño and La Niña affect the winter jet stream and U.S. climate \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68878-how-el-nino-and-la-nina-affect-the-winter-jet-stream-and-u-s-climate-noaa.md) | -0.3% | +2.7% |
| CORN | 2019-02-28 | [CSI ENSO: The case of the missing central Pacific rainfall \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60531-csi-enso-the-case-of-the-missing-central-pacific-rainfall-noaa-climate-gov.md) | -0.8% | +1.1% |
| CORN | 2024-11-14 | [November 2024 ENSO update: ask me anything \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27324-november-2024-enso-update-ask-me-anything-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +0.2% | +0.4% |
| SOY | 2018-07-27 | [Look South, ENSO Forecasters! \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63937-look-south-enso-forecasters-noaa-climate-gov.md) | +2.5% | -2.2% |
| SOY | 2021-06-01 | [Climate.gov tweet chat: Talk El Niño and La Niña with the ENSO bloggers \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46480-climate-gov-tweet-chat-talk-el-nino-and-la-nina-with-the-enso-bloggers-noaa.md) | +1.9% | -11.3% |
| SOY | 2017-09-18 | [How El Niño and La Niña affect the winter jet stream and U.S. climate \| NOAA Climate.gov](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68878-how-el-nino-and-la-nina-affect-the-winter-jet-stream-and-u-s-climate-noaa.md) | +1.6% | +3.3% |

## Sources

- climate.gov: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/why-enso-forecasters-shouldn%E2%80%99t-just-take-their-ball-and-go-home-during

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.