# BRL: downside risks, moderate decline expected - BBH — Octa

> Brown Brothers Harriman expects the Brazilian real to face moderate downside, forecasting USD/BRL at 3.30 by year-end. The bank cites high yields, a solid trade surplus and expected fiscal reform as support. It notes February IPCA inflation slowed to 4.76% y/y and the trailing 12-month trade surplus reached $51.0 billion.

- Date: 2017-03-30 · published 2017-03-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/72188-brl-downside-risks-moderate-decline-expected-bbh-octa
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker real makes Brazilian exports such as soybeans, corn, soymeal and DDGS cheaper in dollar terms, which can add export competitiveness and pressure global feed prices. Continued fiscal strain could weigh on the currency further.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: neutral
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2018-04-20 | [BRL: Growing presidential election risks spells more downside trouble - ING — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65705-brl-growing-presidential-election-risks-spells-more-downside-trouble-ing-octa.md) | +2.8% | +8.9% |
| USDBRL | 2026-07-29 | [Rabobank flags BRL downside as rate differentials narrow and fiscal risks rise ahead of 2026 elections - VT Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18565-rabobank-flags-brl-downside-as-rate-differentials-narrow-and-fiscal-risks-rise.md) | -0.0% | +0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2019-08-01 | [Brazil's Larger-Than-Expected Rate Cut Is a Sign of More to Come](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10779-brazil-s-larger-than-expected-rate-cut-is-a-sign-of-more-to-come.md) | +6.1% | +10.6% |
| USDBRL | 2021-02-23 | [USD/BRL: Brazilian real set to depreciate modestly versus the dollar over the next year – Capital Economics — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48849-usd-brl-brazilian-real-set-to-depreciate-modestly-versus-the-dollar-over-the.md) | +1.7% | +1.0% |
| USDBRL | 2024-07-31 | [Brazil holds interest rates as expected, flags 'greater caution'](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29477-brazil-holds-interest-rates-as-expected-flags-greater-caution.md) | -0.2% | -2.7% |
| SBM | 2026-06-18 | [BRL Weakens After BCB and Fed Rate Decisions](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10642-brl-weakens-after-bcb-and-fed-rate-decisions.md) | +0.6% | +3.6% |
| SBM | 2016-11-10 | [USD/BRL: Brazilian real tumbles to lowest since June — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5468-usd-brl-brazilian-real-tumbles-to-lowest-since-june-octa.md) | +0.0% | +1.9% |
| SBM | 2023-10-19 | [Indonesia c.bank unexpectedly raises rates amid falling rupiah \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33952-indonesia-c-bank-unexpectedly-raises-rates-amid-falling-rupiah-reuters.md) | +4.7% | +14.4% |

## Sources

- octaafrica.net: https://www.octaafrica.net/markets/news/view/426110/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.