# El Nino may arrive this summer and fall

> The US Climate Prediction Center said Pacific Ocean waters warmed in February and an El Nino could develop from July to December, with a 50-55% chance. Conditions are expected to stay neutral through May.

- Date: 2017-03-09 · published 2017-03-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/71912-el-nino-may-arrive-this-summer-and-fall
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Historically El Nino has been associated with better US corn and soybean yields, but poorer yields for Argentina and Australia, which can support or pressure global grain and oilseed prices later in the year.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2017-08-10 | [How will summer drought and this fall’s corn crop affect feeder cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69610-how-will-summer-drought-and-this-fall-s-corn-crop-affect-feeder-cattle.md) | -4.5% | -6.5% |
| CORN | 2020-05-14 | [U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53048-u-s-forecaster-sees-65-chance-for-no-el-nino-la-nina-during-summer.md) | -0.0% | +1.8% |
| CORN | 2026-02-17 | [Climate Prediction Center: La Niña Likely to Fade, El Niño May Develop by Summer - Southeast AgNET](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20522-climate-prediction-center-la-nina-likely-to-fade-el-nino-may-develop-by-summer.md) | -1.0% | +4.5% |
| CORN | 2023-11-16 | [Fall Rains Ease Midwest Drought and Replenish Mississippi River - Farmer Mac](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33358-fall-rains-ease-midwest-drought-and-replenish-mississippi-river-farmer-mac.md) | +0.0% | -2.2% |
| CORN | 2025-06-06 | [Texas Agriculture • June 6, 2025 • El Niño nor La Niña likely to impact Lone Star State this summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24120-texas-agriculture-june-6-2025-el-nino-nor-la-nina-likely-to-impact-lone-star.md) | -2.1% | -4.6% |
| SOY | 2023-05-05 | [‘Developing’ El Nino may hit India’s maize, soya and rice output, says FAO   - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35870-developing-el-nino-may-hit-india-s-maize-soya-and-rice-output-says-fao-the.md) | -0.4% | -6.6% |
| SOY | 2020-05-14 | [U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53048-u-s-forecaster-sees-65-chance-for-no-el-nino-la-nina-during-summer.md) | +1.3% | +3.6% |
| SOY | 2026-02-17 | [Climate Prediction Center: La Niña Likely to Fade, El Niño May Develop by Summer - Southeast AgNET](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20522-climate-prediction-center-la-nina-likely-to-fade-el-nino-may-develop-by-summer.md) | +0.1% | +2.0% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/el-nino-may-arrive-this-summer-and-fall

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.