# OPEC’s Misleading Narrative About World Oil Supply | The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

> Belfer Center analyst Leonardo Maugeri argues that world oil supply is still in surplus, with production near 99.5 mbd in January 2017 and spare capacity above 4 mbd. He contends OPEC cuts mainly act as psychological support for prices.

- Date: 2017-03-09 · published 2017-03-09T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/71898-opec-s-misleading-narrative-about-world-oil-supply-the-belfer-center-for
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

If the surplus view is right, crude prices have limited upside from OPEC cuts, which weighs on energy-linked costs for feed producers and on biofuel economics.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2020-03-27 | [The Oil Price Collapse Could Reshape Global Natural Gas Markets \| Georgetown Journal of International Affairs \|
    Georgetown University](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54312-the-oil-price-collapse-could-reshape-global-natural-gas-markets-georgetown.md) | +37.1% | -32.8% |
| WTI | 2023-10-03 | [Oil drops for fourth consecutive day on macroeconomic concerns  \| The National](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7915-oil-drops-for-fourth-consecutive-day-on-macroeconomic-concerns-the-national.md) | -5.4% | -6.8% |
| WTI | 2025-09-29 | [Oil falls on concerns another OPEC+ supply boost will swell glut - CNBC TV18](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23038-oil-falls-on-concerns-another-opec-supply-boost-will-swell-glut-cnbc-tv18.md) | -7.3% | -6.4% |
| WTI | 2023-07-04 | [Why are OPEC+ supply cuts failing to boost oil prices?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34941-why-are-opec-supply-cuts-failing-to-boost-oil-prices.md) | +7.3% | +16.7% |
| WTI | 2022-07-05 | [U.S. oil just tumbled below $100 a barrel — What that says about recession fears and tight crude supplies - MarketWatch](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12615-u-s-oil-just-tumbled-below-100-a-barrel-what-that-says-about-recession-fears.md) | -3.9% | -12.8% |
| BRENT | 2020-03-27 | [The Oil Price Collapse Could Reshape Global Natural Gas Markets \| Georgetown Journal of International Affairs \|
    Georgetown University](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54312-the-oil-price-collapse-could-reshape-global-natural-gas-markets-georgetown.md) | -1.2% | -25.9% |
| BRENT | 2023-10-03 | [Oil drops for fourth consecutive day on macroeconomic concerns  \| The National](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7915-oil-drops-for-fourth-consecutive-day-on-macroeconomic-concerns-the-national.md) | -1.3% | -2.1% |
| BRENT | 2025-09-29 | [Oil falls on concerns another OPEC+ supply boost will swell glut - CNBC TV18](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23038-oil-falls-on-concerns-another-opec-supply-boost-will-swell-glut-cnbc-tv18.md) | -7.5% | -6.8% |

## Sources

- belfercenter.org: https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/opecs-misleading-narrative-about-world-oil-supply

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.