# US asset markets: What Fed cuts mean for US Treasuries and the dollar | articles | ING THINK

> ING analysts expect the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points over the first half of 2020 in response to coronavirus. They also forecast 10-year Treasury yields falling to 0.75% and EUR/USD rising to 1.15. They see a supply shock turning into a financial shock and a possible demand shock, with a negative Q2 U.S. GDP print a clear possibility.

- Date: 2020-03-02 · published 2020-03-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7151-us-asset-markets-what-fed-cuts-mean-for-us-treasuries-and-the-dollar-articles
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Euro (USD per EUR)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/EURUSD.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

Lower U.S. rates and yields would weaken the dollar, which tends to support dollar-priced commodities. Expected demand weakness from the virus could also pressure energy and industrial-linked commodity prices.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bearish ▼
- WTI: bearish ▼
- EURUSD: bullish ▲

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| EURUSD | 2020-03-02 | 1 | +1.5% | 5.4 | On 2 March ING expected aggressive Fed cuts and lower Treasury yields, which narrows the rate differential and supports EUR/USD. |
| EURUSD | 2020-03-06 | 5 | +2.9% | 4.4 | Expectations of 100bp of Fed cuts and falling Treasury yields imply a narrowing rate differential, supporting a higher EUR/USD and reinforcing the dollar-weakness driver. |
| DXY | 2020-03-02 | 1 | -0.7% | -4.4 | Same-day ING view that Fed cuts will lower Treasury yields and the dollar reflects the expectations driving the move. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2020-03-03 | [Fed and the FX markets: Tainted carry \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7170-fed-and-the-fx-markets-tainted-carry-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.3% | +5.5% |
| DXY | 2018-06-26 | [For the US dollar, the only way is not up \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64713-for-the-us-dollar-the-only-way-is-not-up-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.8% | -0.1% |
| DXY | 2024-09-20 | [US Fed rate cuts: What does this mean for gold, equities, and emerging markets? \| Julius Baer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28221-us-fed-rate-cuts-what-does-this-mean-for-gold-equities-and-emerging-markets.md) | -0.2% | +2.2% |
| DXY | 2021-04-28 | [FX Daily: The patient Fed and the “nervous” dollar \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47788-fx-daily-the-patient-fed-and-the-nervous-dollar-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.3% | -1.0% |
| DXY | 2020-07-29 | [US dollar breaking down, gold and the $A breaking up – what does it mean for investors? - Invest Blue](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52393-us-dollar-breaking-down-gold-and-the-a-breaking-up-what-does-it-mean-for.md) | +0.4% | -0.4% |
| EURUSD | 2020-07-28 | [Rates Spark: The weaker USD, the Fed and cross currency \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52298-rates-spark-the-weaker-usd-the-fed-and-cross-currency-articles-ing-think.md) | 0.0% | +0.5% |
| EURUSD | 2025-04-16 | [G10 FX Talking: The medium-term dollar bear trend develops \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7250-g10-fx-talking-the-medium-term-dollar-bear-trend-develops-articles-ing-think.md) | +1.6% | -1.0% |
| EURUSD | 2026-05-29 | [Euro-Dollar: Why Markets Think The ECB Will Hike Before The Fed](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19473-euro-dollar-why-markets-think-the-ecb-will-hike-before-the-fed.md) | -0.2% | -2.1% |

## Sources

- think.ing.com: https://think.ing.com/articles/us-asset-markets-what-fed-cuts-mean-for-us-treasuries-and-the-dollar/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.