# MPP Forecast: January 2018 - NMPF

> The November 2017 MPP margin rose $0.39 per cwt to $10.39, driven by a higher all-milk price and a lower feed cost, with corn prices contributing the largest decline. CME futures suggest the margin will drop below $8.00 per cwt in early 2018 as cheese and whey prices fall.

- Date: 2018-01-05 · published 2018-01-05T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7146-mpp-forecast-january-2018-nmpf
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A forecast fall in the all-milk price would reduce dairy farmers' margins and could cut their feed purchasing. Lower corn and soybean meal costs in the feed formula partly offset this for producers.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- MILK: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2018-01-10 | 5 | -10.8% | -4.4 | CME futures implying lower cheese and whey prices and a shrinking margin signal bearish pricing for Class III through early 2018. |
| MILK | 2018-01-04 | 1 | -9.0% | -7.1 | NMPF noted CME futures imply the margin falling below $8 as cheese and whey prices fall, pointing to weak Class III inputs and bearish sentiment. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2017-04-07 | [MPP Forecast: April - NMPF](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7388-mpp-forecast-april-nmpf.md) | +0.6% | +2.9% |
| MILK | 2019-01-24 | [Figure to December 2018 (published 24 January 2019) - GOV.UK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61106-figure-to-december-2018-published-24-january-2019-gov-uk.md) | +0.4% | +0.1% |
| MILK | 2023-01-26 | [Milk price forecast for 2023 much lower than 2022 prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37781-milk-price-forecast-for-2023-much-lower-than-2022-prices.md) | -7.9% | -7.9% |
| MILK | 2024-02-29 | [Global dairy forecast: 2024 milk production and trade - Dairy Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31686-global-dairy-forecast-2024-milk-production-and-trade-dairy-global.md) | -4.1% | -4.8% |
| MILK | 2018-07-13 | [USDA cuts 2018 and 2019 milk price projections, production forecasts -  \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64032-usda-cuts-2018-and-2019-milk-price-projections-production-forecasts-ag-proud.md) | -0.6% | +4.8% |
| CORN | 2018-02-08 | [2018 U.S. Farm Income Forecast Released - Farm Policy News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66480-2018-u-s-farm-income-forecast-released-farm-policy-news.md) | +0.2% | +2.3% |
| CORN | 2018-01-15 | [Market trends report for January-February 2018 - Grain Farmers of Ontario](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9199-market-trends-report-for-january-february-2018-grain-farmers-of-ontario.md) | +2.3% | +3.3% |
| CORN | 2019-12-18 | [U.S. Farm Income Outlook: November 2019 Forecast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55428-u-s-farm-income-outlook-november-2019-forecast.md) | -0.1% | -1.9% |

## Sources

- nmpf.org: https://www.nmpf.org/mpp-forecast-january-2018/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.