# IRI scientists weigh-in on the potential for El Niño’s return

> The International Research Institute for Climate and Society explains that NOAA's official forecast puts the chance of El Niño later in 2017 at about 50%. Model-only forecasts have recently shown a higher chance than forecasts that include human judgement. The institute notes models are less accurate for the April-June period.

- Date: 2017-04-18 · published 2017-04-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/71437-iri-scientists-weigh-in-on-the-potential-for-el-nino-s-return
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

The uncertainty around El Niño timing means the weather-driven supply risk for feed grains remains unresolved, so markets may price in only a modest risk premium for now.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-10-10 | [El Niño set to return before end of the year: Kemp](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62471-el-nino-set-to-return-before-end-of-the-year-kemp.md) | +4.0% | +4.0% |
| CORN | 2024-01-16 | [Potential impacts of El Niño on crop production \| AGDAILY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32047-potential-impacts-of-el-nino-on-crop-production-agdaily.md) | -0.4% | -5.4% |
| CORN | 2017-03-01 | [Return of El Niño \| RNZ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71914-return-of-el-nino-rnz.md) | -0.7% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2023-02-06 | [Four possible consequences of El Niño returning in 2023](https://feedsoft.ai/events/37247-four-possible-consequences-of-el-nino-returning-in-2023.md) | +2.0% | -3.2% |
| CORN | 2018-07-25 | [Odds are El Niño, precipitation will return](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63942-odds-are-el-nino-precipitation-will-return.md) | +3.5% | +2.0% |
| SOY | 2018-10-10 | [El Niño set to return before end of the year: Kemp](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62471-el-nino-set-to-return-before-end-of-the-year-kemp.md) | +2.5% | +1.0% |
| SOY | 2024-01-16 | [Potential impacts of El Niño on crop production \| AGDAILY](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32047-potential-impacts-of-el-nino-on-crop-production-agdaily.md) | +1.5% | -1.1% |
| SOY | 2017-03-01 | [Return of El Niño \| RNZ](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71914-return-of-el-nino-rnz.md) | -1.0% | -5.2% |

## Sources

- medium.com: https://medium.com/@climatesociety/iri-scientists-weigh-in-on-the-potential-for-el-ni%C3%B1os-return-4535c7ff86d3

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.