# Grain Prices “Steep Dive” Following Production, Stocks Reports | Farm Policy News | Illinois

> CBOT wheat for December delivery fell 6.6% on September 29 after USDA quarterly stocks and Small Grains reports showed higher wheat and soybean stocks and higher wheat production than analysts expected. Corn stocks came in lower than expected. Wheat had lost 17% during the third quarter, with Russian export supplies cited as a major pressure.

- Date: 2023-10-01 · published 2023-10-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/7137-grain-prices-steep-dive-following-production-stocks-reports-farm-policy-news
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Bigger-than-expected U.S. wheat supplies and soybean stocks loosen balance sheets and weigh on futures. Feed grain buyers should expect softer wheat and soybean complex prices, with corn cushioned by its lower stocks.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-10-02 | 1 | -4.0% | -4.4 | The USDA Small Grains and quarterly stocks reports on Sept 29 triggered a 6.6% selloff on higher-than-expected wheat production and stocks plus Russian export pressure, but the timing is a trading day before the window, so this is mainly carry-over. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2016-11-11 | [Farming News - Global wheat production up - leads to new record stocks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73799-farming-news-global-wheat-production-up-leads-to-new-record-stocks.md) | +1.8% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2025-07-11 | [PF Reaction to USDA Reports \| USDA cuts old-, new-crop corn ending stocks - Pro Farmer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23714-pf-reaction-to-usda-reports-usda-cuts-old-new-crop-corn-ending-stocks-pro-farmer.md) | -2.3% | -2.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-11-10 | [Yield, Production and Stocks Increase Sends Corn and Soy Lower Following November WASDE](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33112-yield-production-and-stocks-increase-sends-corn-and-soy-lower-following.md) | -2.7% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2017-03-12 | [WASDE report puts major ag products on defensive - Agweek \| #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11203-wasde-report-puts-major-ag-products-on-defensive-agweek-1-source-for.md) | +1.0% | +0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2022-12-06 | [Production rebound in Canada sees exports bounce - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38194-production-rebound-in-canada-sees-exports-bounce-grain-central.md) | +9.9% | +9.2% |
| SOY | 2019-02-08 | [Soybean Production Up in 2018, USDA Reports Winter Wheat Seedings and Grain Stocks also reported](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60450-soybean-production-up-in-2018-usda-reports-winter-wheat-seedings-and-grain.md) | -1.1% | -3.2% |
| SOY | 2024-01-12 | [USDA Releases January Crop Production, WASDE, Dec. 1 Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings Reports](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32176-usda-releases-january-crop-production-wasde-dec-1-grain-stocks-and-winter-wheat.md) | -1.5% | -3.9% |
| SOY | 2016-07-18 | [Grain Supply and Demand report sends grain prices falling](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7417-grain-supply-and-demand-report-sends-grain-prices-falling.md) | -6.2% | -6.5% |

## Sources

- farmpolicynews.illinois.edu: https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2023/10/grain-prices-steep-dive-following-production-stocks-reports/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.