# Probability of El Niño this year at least 50% – Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre

> The WMO says there is a 50-60% chance of El Nino returning after June 2017, though forecasts made before June are less certain. IRI's chief forecaster reports that many climate models have predicted an El Nino after the current neutral period.

- Date: 2017-05-02 · published 2017-05-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/70916-probability-of-el-nino-this-year-at-least-50-red-cross-red-crescent-climate
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

A rising probability of El Nino raises the risk of drought in Australia, Southeast Asia and southern Africa, which could tighten grain and oilseed supplies later in the year. The price impact depends on whether the forecast firms up.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- PALMOIL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-06 | [Widespread ASAP forecast warnings on crops for second half of the year due to upcoming El Niño conditions - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19186-widespread-asap-forecast-warnings-on-crops-for-second-half-of-the-year-due-to.md) | +3.3% | +0.0% |
| WHEAT | 2017-05-19 | [El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. \| Climate Change](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70915-el-nino-again-this-is-why-it-s-hard-to-tell-climate-change.md) | +3.0% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2021-08-01 | [La Niña climate pattern should return this fall and last through winter. Here's what to expect.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45982-la-nina-climate-pattern-should-return-this-fall-and-last-through-winter-here-s.md) | +1.8% | +2.3% |
| WHEAT | 2026-03-12 | [El Niño Threatens Higher Global Temperatures, Crop Disruption This Year - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20085-el-nino-threatens-higher-global-temperatures-crop-disruption-this-year-bloomberg.md) | -0.2% | -2.1% |
| WHEAT | 2026-09-04 | [El Niño drives crop failure in Central America and East Africa and threatens the next season in Southern Africa, East Africa, Western South America, and Southeast Asia - Joint Research Centre](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17395-el-nino-drives-crop-failure-in-central-america-and-east-africa-and-threatens.md) | +1.4% | +0.4% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-10-10 | [El Niño set to return before end of the year: Kemp](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62471-el-nino-set-to-return-before-end-of-the-year-kemp.md) | +0.8% | -3.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2026-03-12 | [El Niño Threatens Higher Global Temperatures, Crop Disruption This Year - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20085-el-nino-threatens-higher-global-temperatures-crop-disruption-this-year-bloomberg.md) | +0.9% | +3.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2018-10-19 | [Southwest Climate Outlook El Niño Tracker - October 2018 \| CLIMAS](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62474-southwest-climate-outlook-el-nino-tracker-october-2018-climas.md) | -0.9% | -9.6% |

## Sources

- climatecentre.org: https://www.climatecentre.org/1407/probability-of-el-nino-this-year-at-least-50/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.