# El Niño again? This is why it’s hard to tell. | Climate Change

> Forecasters say the odds of El Nino developing this year are about even, with the spring predictability barrier limiting forecast skill. The article recalls that the 2015-16 El Nino caused major droughts in Southeast Asia and Africa and floods in South America.

- Date: 2017-05-19 · published 2017-05-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/70915-el-nino-again-this-is-why-it-s-hard-to-tell-climate-change
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Uncertain El Nino odds leave the risk of drought in key feed grain and oilseed regions unresolved, which supports a modest weather premium in grain and soy markets. A confirmed event would likely lift prices more.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2023-05-24 | [The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13279-the-u-s-now-has-a-nearly-90-chance-of-seeing-el-nino-this-summer-agweb.md) | -3.4% | -0.1% |
| CORN | 2021-08-01 | [La Niña climate pattern should return this fall and last through winter. Here's what to expect.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45982-la-nina-climate-pattern-should-return-this-fall-and-last-through-winter-here-s.md) | +1.0% | +0.7% |
| CORN | 2019-12-10 | [Climate change and the threat to global breadbaskets - IIASA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55501-climate-change-and-the-threat-to-global-breadbaskets-iiasa.md) | +4.3% | +3.9% |
| CORN | 2019-04-14 | [Will climate change cause food sources to dwindle? \| Ort Lab](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59444-will-climate-change-cause-food-sources-to-dwindle-ort-lab.md) | +0.4% | -2.5% |
| CORN | 2020-06-26 | [Climate change could affect the second corn harvest in Brazil - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/52440-climate-change-could-affect-the-second-corn-harvest-in-brazil-revista-cultivar.md) | +4.6% | +0.9% |
| SOY | 2023-05-24 | [The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13279-the-u-s-now-has-a-nearly-90-chance-of-seeing-el-nino-this-summer-agweb.md) | -1.7% | +13.5% |
| SOY | 2021-08-01 | [La Niña climate pattern should return this fall and last through winter. Here's what to expect.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45982-la-nina-climate-pattern-should-return-this-fall-and-last-through-winter-here-s.md) | +0.5% | -3.9% |
| SOY | 2019-12-10 | [Climate change and the threat to global breadbaskets - IIASA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55501-climate-change-and-the-threat-to-global-breadbaskets-iiasa.md) | +2.8% | +4.6% |

## Sources

- climatechange.ie: http://www.climatechange.ie/el-nino-again-this-is-why-its-hard-to-tell/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.