# El Nino bias retreats - Grain Central

> Nidera Australia's Peter McMeekin says the El Nino signal has weakened, with the Bureau of Meteorology keeping ENSO neutral but still giving a 50% chance of El Nino in the second half of 2017. He notes that two-thirds of past El Nino events caused moisture stress in Australia's winter cropping regions.

- Date: 2017-05-16 · published 2017-05-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/70914-el-nino-bias-retreats-grain-central
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Lower El Nino odds reduce the chance of drought in Australian winter grain areas, which eases upside pressure on wheat and barley export prices. Barley and wheat buyers may see less need to lock in supply.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- BARLEY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2025-07-29 | [EU grain production rebounds - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23686-eu-grain-production-rebounds-grain-central.md) | -0.7% | -0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2019-11-05 | [Barley market awaits China news - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55973-barley-market-awaits-china-news-grain-central.md) | +3.0% | +7.4% |
| WHEAT | 2019-04-23 | [Wheat values driven by supply side - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59531-wheat-values-driven-by-supply-side-grain-central.md) | -4.2% | -0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2018-04-25 | [El Niño–Southern Oscillation likely to remain neutral through winter - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65447-el-nino-southern-oscillation-likely-to-remain-neutral-through-winter-grain.md) | +3.5% | +2.9% |
| WHEAT | 2020-05-14 | [Weather models point to possible La Nina in spring - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53051-weather-models-point-to-possible-la-nina-in-spring-grain-central.md) | +0.4% | +1.0% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/cropping/el-nino-bias-retreats/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.