# El Nino risk recedes

> The Australian Bureau of Meteorology downgraded its ENSO outlook to inactive, and Japan's agency also sees no El Niño development this winter. Eight international models suggest ENSO-neutral conditions for the second half of 2017, and NIWA is expected to follow.

- Date: 2017-06-22 · published 2017-06-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/70415-el-nino-risk-recedes
- Commodities: [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower El Niño risk reduces the chance of drought for Australian and New Zealand grain and pasture, which eases supply concerns for feed grains and barley. Prices are likely to stay steady.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- BARLEY: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2017-05-16 | [El Nino bias retreats - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70914-el-nino-bias-retreats-grain-central.md) | +3.2% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2018-12-14 | [El Nino is back – and may stick around](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61499-el-nino-is-back-and-may-stick-around.md) | +1.6% | +0.3% |
| WHEAT | 2024-01-23 | [Australia set to harvest bigger crops after rains defy El Nino](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32081-australia-set-to-harvest-bigger-crops-after-rains-defy-el-nino.md) | -0.1% | -5.5% |
| WHEAT | 2021-05-13 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2021)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46985-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2021.md) | -1.8% | -4.6% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-30 | [The spectre of El Niño - Mecardo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35988-the-spectre-of-el-nino-mecardo.md) | -4.0% | +9.3% |

## Sources

- farmersweekly.co.nz: https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/news/el-nino-risk-recedes/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.