# El Niño WATCH—everything you ever wanted to know but were afraid to ask - Social Media Blog - Bureau of Meteorology

> The Australian Bureau of Meteorology explains its El Niño WATCH stage, which means about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in the coming months, roughly double the normal annual likelihood. It notes an equal chance that the signals are short-lived and ENSO stays neutral or moves to La Niña.

- Date: 2017-06-13 · published 2017-06-13T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/70411-el-nino-watch-everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-but-were-afraid-to-ask-social
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A WATCH status signals possible drought risk for Australian wheat and barley and Southeast Asian palm oil later in 2017. The article is explanatory, so its direct price effect is limited.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral
- BARLEY: neutral
- PALMOIL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2026-01-22 | [Will El Niño be slow to develop? \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20953-will-el-nino-be-slow-to-develop-world-grain.md) | +3.9% | +5.2% |
| WHEAT | 2021-07-20 | [Adverse weather? Blame the El Niño cycle](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45917-adverse-weather-blame-the-el-nino-cycle.md) | -1.2% | +1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2026-06-22 | [Wheat rallies tough to sustain, but El Niño, supply risks remain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18845-wheat-rallies-tough-to-sustain-but-el-nino-supply-risks-remain.md) | -1.6% | +1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2019-11-01 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: El Niño Remains Neutral](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55983-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | -0.2% | +8.0% |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-13 | [What this year’s El Niño means for wheat and global food supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34965-what-this-year-s-el-nino-means-for-wheat-and-global-food-supply.md) | +3.7% | +3.6% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-11-01 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: El Niño Remains Neutral](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55983-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | +12.8% | +16.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-07-24 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69873-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | +0.7% | +3.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| June Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70405-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-june-climate.md) | -0.6% | +2.2% |

## Sources

- media.bom.gov.au: https://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/1449/el-nio-watcheverything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-but-were-afraid-to-ask/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.