# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | June Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend

> The IRI June climate briefing reports that sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific (Nino3.4) stayed at borderline neutral-to-weak El Niño levels of +0.4°C to +0.6°C. Atmospheric and sub-surface indicators remained near average, so no El Niño event is yet present.

- Date: 2017-06-19 · published 2017-06-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/70405-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-june-climate
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Falling El Niño odds point to a lower risk of drought in Australia, Southeast Asia and India, which supports stable palm oil, grain and oilseed supply. The price impact is modest because the signal is still weak.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral
- PALMOIL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2017-07-24 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69873-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | +0.7% | +3.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-11-01 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: El Niño Remains Neutral](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55983-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | +12.8% | +16.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-06-15 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2017 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70407-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2017-june-quick.md) | -0.2% | +3.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-07-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2017 July Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69874-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2017-july-quick.md) | +1.4% | +4.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2025-11-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| November 2025 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21854-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-november-2025.md) | -1.2% | -1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-24 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69873-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate.md) | -2.5% | +0.0% |
| WHEAT | 2017-05-25 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| May Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Down Slightly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70913-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-may-climate.md) | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2019-11-01 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: El Niño Remains Neutral](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55983-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | -0.2% | +8.0% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/june-climate-briefing-el-nino-odds-continue-downward-trend/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.