# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | July Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend

> The IRI July 2017 climate briefing says Pacific sea-surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region sit at a borderline neutral-weak El Niño level of +0.5 to +0.7C, but atmospheric indicators remain neutral. Model odds have shifted toward warm-neutral ENSO conditions through the rest of the year.

- Date: 2017-07-24 · published 2017-07-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/69873-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-climate
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Falling El Niño odds reduce the risk of drought in Australia, India and Southeast Asia and of dryness in southern Africa and South America later in 2017, which lowers the odds of supply shortfalls in palm oil, grains and oilseeds.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral
- PALMOIL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2017-06-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| June Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Continue Downward Trend](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70405-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-june-climate.md) | -0.6% | +2.2% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-11-01 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October Climate Briefing: El Niño Remains Neutral](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55983-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-climate.md) | +12.8% | +16.7% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-07-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2017 July Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69874-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2017-july-quick.md) | +1.4% | +4.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-06-15 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2017 June Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70407-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2017-june-quick.md) | -0.2% | +3.1% |
| PALMOIL | 2025-11-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| November 2025 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21854-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-november-2025.md) | -1.2% | -1.7% |
| CORN | 2017-05-25 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| May Climate Briefing: El Niño Odds Down Slightly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70913-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-may-climate.md) | -0.2% | -1.2% |
| CORN | 2017-08-24 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| August Climate Briefing: No Niño or Niña on Horizon](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69373-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-august-climate.md) | -3.1% | +0.7% |
| CORN | 2018-04-30 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| April Climate Briefing: La Niña Transitions Out, Neutral Next](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65444-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-april-climate.md) | +1.4% | +3.8% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/news/july-climate-briefing-el-nino-odds-continue-downward-trend/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.