# Seasonal climate outlook: September 2017 - November 2017 | Earth Sciences New Zealand | NIWA

> NIWA's seasonal outlook says ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in the tropical Pacific in August 2017, with some indicators leaning toward La Niña. International guidance gives a 65% chance of neutral conditions for September to November 2017.

- Date: 2017-08-30 · published 2017-08-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region New Zealand · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/69372-seasonal-climate-outlook-september-2017-november-2017-earth-sciences-new
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Neutral ENSO with a slight La Niña tilt generally implies no major El Niño-driven drought or flood risk for key grain and oilseed origins over the coming months, which keeps weather premium limited.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-12-06 | [Island Climate Update 266 - December 2022 \| Earth Sciences New Zealand \| NIWA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38156-island-climate-update-266-december-2022-earth-sciences-new-zealand-niwa.md) | +9.9% | +9.2% |
| WHEAT | 2025-11-21 | [Global Seasonal Outlook (November 2025) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21856-global-seasonal-outlook-november-2025-world-reliefweb.md) | -0.8% | -0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2018-12-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 December Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61498-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-december.md) | -2.1% | -1.8% |
| WHEAT | 2019-12-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2019 December Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55497-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2019-december.md) | -0.0% | +2.6% |
| WHEAT | 2017-09-28 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| September Climate Briefing: Surprise La Niña or Ephemeral Cooling?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68869-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-september-climate.md) | +5.4% | +10.6% |
| CORN | 2022-12-06 | [Island Climate Update 266 - December 2022 \| Earth Sciences New Zealand \| NIWA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38156-island-climate-update-266-december-2022-earth-sciences-new-zealand-niwa.md) | +1.1% | +4.8% |
| CORN | 2025-11-21 | [Global Seasonal Outlook (November 2025) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21856-global-seasonal-outlook-november-2025-world-reliefweb.md) | +1.1% | +2.0% |
| CORN | 2023-11-28 | [Global Seasonal Climate Update for July-August-September 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33096-global-seasonal-climate-update-for-july-august-september-2024.md) | +2.2% | +4.6% |

## Sources

- niwa.co.nz: https://niwa.co.nz/climate-and-weather/seasonal-climate-outlook/seasonal-climate-outlook-september-2017-november-2017

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.