# Forecast decrease for winter crop production: ABARES - Grain Central

> ABARES forecasts Australia's 2017-18 winter crop production to fall 39% to 36.3 Mt, with wheat down 38% to 21.6 Mt, barley down 40% to 8 Mt and canola down 33% to 2.8 Mt. The decline mainly reflects lower yields after the exceptionally high 2016-17 harvest, and outcomes depend on timely spring rain.

- Date: 2017-09-12 · published 2017-09-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/68910-forecast-decrease-for-winter-crop-production-abares-grain-central
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md)

## Why it matters

A much smaller Australian wheat, barley and canola crop tightens export supplies from Australia and supports international feed grain and meal prices, especially barley and canola meal.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲
- CANMEAL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-12-04 | [Winter crop production down after poor start to spring: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61530-winter-crop-production-down-after-poor-start-to-spring-abares-grain-central.md) | -0.3% | +1.5% |
| WHEAT | 2017-08-08 | [Wheat production forecast down: NAB - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69415-wheat-production-forecast-down-nab-grain-central.md) | +0.5% | -0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2023-08-22 | [SA winter crop forecast at 8.8Mt: PIRSA - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34525-sa-winter-crop-forecast-at-8-8mt-pirsa-grain-central.md) | -4.2% | -1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2018-10-10 | [Eastern drought pushes Australian winter crop forecast lower - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62503-eastern-drought-pushes-australian-winter-crop-forecast-lower-grain-central.md) | +8.2% | +4.5% |
| WHEAT | 2019-12-10 | [Ag production falls for third year in row: ABARES - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55533-ag-production-falls-for-third-year-in-row-abares-grain-central.md) | +2.5% | +3.5% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/news/forecast-decrease-for-winter-crop-production-abares/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.