# World Bank warns fertilizer prices could surge more than 30% in 2026 if Hormuz disruption persists — Fertilizer Daily

> The World Bank's April 2026 outlook projected fertilizer prices rising about 31% in 2026, with urea up nearly 60%. Since then urea and potash have eased from spring peaks while phosphate stays expensive, and the index averaged 147.6 in Q3 versus 188.2 in Q2.

- Date: 2026-06-23 · published 2026-06-23T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/6819-world-bank-warns-fertilizer-prices-could-surge-more-than-30-in-2026-if-hormuz
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md)

## Why it matters

The forecast was built on Hormuz disruption that has partly reversed, so the earlier surge outlook looks overstated for nitrogen. Phosphate remaining high keeps pressure on DAP-based feed phosphate costs.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bearish ▼
- POTASH: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2024-05-15 | [Retail Fertilizer Prices Mixed; More Are Lower Than Higher](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30186-retail-fertilizer-prices-mixed-more-are-lower-than-higher.md) | +0.2% | +2.3% |
| UREA | 2023-10-01 | [Global prices for fertilizers returned to 2021 levels in 2023 after surging in 2022 )](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34027-global-prices-for-fertilizers-returned-to-2021-levels-in-2023-after-surging-in.md) | 0.0% | -8.3% |
| UREA | 2024-07-08 | [Fertilizer prices edge lower amid lower input costs and improved production prospects](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29612-fertilizer-prices-edge-lower-amid-lower-input-costs-and-improved-production.md) | -0.1% | +3.8% |
| UREA | 2023-04-13 | [Latest Data Shows Drop in Fertilizer Prices - MiningNewsWire](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5939-latest-data-shows-drop-in-fertilizer-prices-miningnewswire.md) | +0.6% | +2.8% |
| UREA | 2025-01-15 | [Fertilizer prices stabilize amid lower input costs and trade shifts](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26436-fertilizer-prices-stabilize-amid-lower-input-costs-and-trade-shifts.md) | +0.9% | +14.3% |
| DAP | 2026-07-09 | [World Bank warns fertilizer prices could surge more than 30% in 2026 if Hormuz disruption persists-China-ASEAN Chamber of Agricultural Commerce](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18273-world-bank-warns-fertilizer-prices-could-surge-more-than-30-in-2026-if-hormuz.md) | +1.0% | +5.1% |
| DAP | 2025-08-20 | [World Bank Projects Higher Fertilizer Prices Into 2026 -](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23634-world-bank-projects-higher-fertilizer-prices-into-2026.md) | -0.2% | -2.8% |
| DAP | 2025-11-05 | [Global fertilizer prices to surge by 21% in 2025, World Bank warns \| AgriTech Middle East & Africa - Trends in I ...](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6231-global-fertilizer-prices-to-surge-by-21-in-2025-world-bank-warns-agritech.md) | +0.2% | -11.9% |

## Sources

- fertilizerdaily.com: https://www.fertilizerdaily.com/20260623-world-bank-warns-fertilizer-prices-could-surge-more-than-30-in-2026-if-hormuz-disruption-persists/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.