# Don’t Bet the Farm or the (GOP) House on a Trade War with Mexico

> A CSIS commentary warns that if the US exits NAFTA, Mexico could apply its higher WTO bound tariffs, which average 35% and reach up to 156% on some farm goods. The author notes Mexico buys about $18 billion of US agricultural exports annually.

- Date: 2017-11-07 · published 2017-11-07T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Mexico · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/67964-don-t-bet-the-farm-or-the-gop-house-on-a-trade-war-with-mexico
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Mexican Peso (MXN per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDMXN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A NAFTA exit and Mexican retaliation would threaten a large export market for US corn, soybeans, and meal, which would pressure US prices, though this remains a hypothetical scenario.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- USDMXN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2019-03-14 | [Why U.S. growers are betting the farm on soybeans amid China trade war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8266-why-u-s-growers-are-betting-the-farm-on-soybeans-amid-china-trade-war.md) | +1.9% | +1.5% |
| SOY | 2018-06-09 | [Trade-War Drums: Is Mexico Ready to Fire at the US Corn Belt? \| Wolf Street](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64507-trade-war-drums-is-mexico-ready-to-fire-at-the-us-corn-belt-wolf-street.md) | -6.6% | -12.1% |
| SOY | 2018-08-01 | [The bean at the heart of America's trade war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63573-the-bean-at-the-heart-of-america-s-trade-war.md) | -1.6% | -9.2% |
| SOY | 2019-08-22 | [On the front lines: Trade war sinks North Dakota soybean farmers](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57612-on-the-front-lines-trade-war-sinks-north-dakota-soybean-farmers.md) | -0.9% | +3.8% |
| SOY | 2017-01-26 | [America's farmers stand to lose the most in a China trade war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72863-america-s-farmers-stand-to-lose-the-most-in-a-china-trade-war.md) | -1.8% | -4.1% |
| CORN | 2018-06-09 | [Trade-War Drums: Is Mexico Ready to Fire at the US Corn Belt? \| Wolf Street](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64507-trade-war-drums-is-mexico-ready-to-fire-at-the-us-corn-belt-wolf-street.md) | -3.5% | -5.6% |
| CORN | 2017-01-26 | [America's farmers stand to lose the most in a China trade war](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72863-america-s-farmers-stand-to-lose-the-most-in-a-china-trade-war.md) | +1.9% | +1.7% |
| CORN | 2017-04-04 | [US grain farmers go to Mexico to assure buyers vexed by trade relation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71459-us-grain-farmers-go-to-mexico-to-assure-buyers-vexed-by-trade-relation.md) | -0.2% | +0.2% |

## Sources

- csis.org: https://www.csis.org/analysis/dont-bet-farm-or-gop-house-trade-war-mexico

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.